Milk powder market in Kenya

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2020, Kenya's milk powder market was shaped by weather and policy responses. The market volume grew to 17 380 t in 2019, supported by a rise in domestic milk production that began in May of that year. This growth occurred alongside sustained imports, initially authorized in 2018 to supplement a local supply deficit caused by drought. However, in 2020, a prolonged cold spell and an outbreak of foot and mouth disease led to a drop in milk production, contributing to a market contraction to 16 271 t.

The market expanded sharply to a peak of 19 217 t in 2022, driven by increases in both local production and imports. A significant reversal occurred in 2023, with the market volume falling 20% to 15 246 t. This decline was primarily due to a government ban on milk powder imports implemented in March to protect local dairy producers, coupled with a drought that reduced milk output due to feed scarcity.

Entering 2024, import volumes remained subdued amid continued government crackdowns on illegal powder milk shipments and a managed reopening of import windows from Uganda to address seasonal deficits. Concurrently, state efforts focused on stabilizing domestic milk prices and supporting production through investments in processing capacity, reflecting a policy emphasis on growing local supply.

Production milk powder in Kenya

In kind, 2017-2020, t

Top producers of milk powder, 2017-2020

World map of production of milk powder, 2017-2020

Kenya's milk powder production saw a decline after two consecutive years of growth. In 2020, production reached 5 227 tonnes, remaining largely stable compared to the previous year. Looking at the period from 2017 to 2020, production increased by 13.5%, which translates to an average annual growth rate of 4.3%. The highest production level was recorded in 2019 at 5 239 tonnes, while the most significant year-on-year increase occurred in 2018 at 7.1%.

Annual dynamics of production in Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, t

Exports milk powder from Kenya

Exports in kind, t

The export market for milk powder from Kenya showed considerable volatility during this period. Exports reached their lowest point in 2017 and peaked in 2018, with a 5.1-fold difference between these two years. In 2020, Kenya exported 54 tonnes of milk powder, representing a 40.5% decrease from the previous year. The maximum export volume was recorded in 2018 at 127 tonnes, which also saw the largest percentage increase at 408.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Tanzania, South Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo were the principal buyers of Kenyan milk powder, accounting for 31.5%, 30.6%, and 13.7% of exports respectively. Together, these three countries represented 75.7% of Kenya's total milk powder exports during this period.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Kenya in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

The value of milk powder exports from Kenya experienced noticeable fluctuations during these years. Export values varied 2.8 times between the low in 2017 and the high in 2018. In 2020, milk powder exports were valued at 110 thousand US dollars, marking a 27.1% decrease from the previous year. The peak export value was recorded in 2018 at 168 thousand US dollars, which also saw the largest percentage increase at 184.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kenya in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, Tanzania, South Sudan, and Somalia were the leading destinations for Kenyan milk powder exports in value terms, accounting for 25.4%, 22.5%, and 14.0% of total export value respectively. These three markets together represented 61.9% of Kenya's total milk powder export value during this period.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Kenya in value, 2017-2020

Imports milk powder to Kenya

Imports in kind, t

In 2020, Kenya imported 11 098 tonnes of milk powder, representing a 9.3% decrease from the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, imports declined by 27.5%, equivalent to an average annual decrease of 10.2%. The lowest import volume was recorded in 2018 at 9 137 tonnes, which also saw the largest percentage decline at 40.3%. The most significant increase occurred in 2019 with a 33.9% rise.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Uganda, the Netherlands, and Belgium consistently served as the main sources of milk powder imports to Kenya, accounting for 59.3%, 19.6%, and 7.6% of imports respectively. Together, these three countries represented 86.5% of Kenya's total milk powder imports during this period.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Kenya in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

In 2020, the value of milk powder imports to Kenya totaled 34 196 thousand US dollars, indicating a 15.8% reduction compared to 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, import values decreased by 27.9%, equivalent to an average annual decline of 10.3%. The lowest import value was recorded in 2018 at 27 790 thousand US dollars, which also saw the largest percentage decrease at 41.4%. The most significant increase occurred in 2019 with a 46.2% rise.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kenya in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, Uganda and the Netherlands were the primary sources of milk powder imports to Kenya in value terms, together accounting for 82.0% of total import value. The remaining 18.0% was distributed among other markets.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Kenya in value, 2017-2020