Concentrated or sweetened milk and cream market in Kenya

Earlier Report Observations

The market volume for concentrated or sweetened milk and cream in Kenya grew from 16 266 t in 2018 to a peak of 20 524 t in 2022, despite a dip in 2020. This expansion was initially supported by government programs like the Dairy Value-Chain Support Programme, which distributed bulk milk coolers to improve storage and quality, and the Kenya Climate-Smart Agriculture Project, boosting dairy production through better technology and feed. A 0.95% decline in national milk output in 2020 temporarily reduced market volume to 18 375 t, reflecting supply-side constraints. The market recovered in 2021 after the Kenya Dairy Industry Regulations 2021 introduced a licensing system and minimum price framework, adding stability to the sector.

Market volume reached its highest point in 2022, aided by the Kenya Dairy Board's target of producing 1 billion liters of processed milk, which spurred capacity investments. Drought conditions that year caused milk shortages and retail price spikes, elevating the market value to $69.3 million. In 2023, volume fell sharply to 16 391 t, a shift that coincided with the government's suspension of the milk-powder import ban, likely increasing competition from imported powdered milk. Concurrently, the National Dairy Regulatory Laboratory became fully operational, enhancing product traceability and safety. In 2024, the Dairy Industry Sustainability Roadmap 2023-2033 was launched, aiming to double per-cow yields and expand processing capacity, including through the modernization of the KCC Nyahururu plant.

Production concentrated or sweetened milk and cream in Kenya

In kind, 2017-2020, t

Top producers of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream, 2017-2020

World map of production of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream, 2017-2020

Kenya's production of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream declined after two consecutive years of growth. In 2020, output stood at 7 260 tonnes, remaining relatively stable compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, production increased by 13.6%, with an average annual growth rate of 4.3%. The highest production level was recorded in 2019 at 7 277 tonnes, while the largest year-on-year increase occurred in 2018 at 7.1%.

Annual dynamics of production in Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, t

Exports concentrated or sweetened milk and cream from Kenya

Exports in kind, t

Export volumes showed significant volatility throughout the period. The lowest point was in 2017, while exports peaked in 2019, with a 12.3-fold difference between these years. In 2020, Kenya exported 156 tonnes of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream, marking a 54.5% decrease from 2019. The maximum export volume was recorded in 2019 at 343 tonnes, and the largest year-on-year increase occurred in 2018 at 420.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda were the largest buyers of Kenya's concentrated or sweetened milk and cream by volume. South Sudan accounted for 48.9% of exports, Tanzania for 22.7%, and Uganda for 7.4%. Together, these three countries represented 78.9% of Kenya's total exports in kind during this period.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Kenya in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

Export values experienced notable fluctuations between 2017 and 2020. The lowest point was in 2017, while the peak occurred in 2019, with a 5.7-fold difference between these years. In 2020, Kenya's exports of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream amounted to 204 thousand US dollars, reflecting a sharp 44.3% decline compared to 2019. The maximum value was recorded in 2019 at 367 thousand US dollars, and the largest year-on-year increase occurred in 2018 at 186.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kenya in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda remained the primary destinations for Kenya's concentrated or sweetened milk and cream exports by value. South Sudan accounted for 37.3% of export value, Tanzania for 20.7%, and Uganda for 9.1%. Collectively, these three markets represented 67.1% of Kenya's total export value during this period.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Kenya in value, 2017-2020

Imports concentrated or sweetened milk and cream to Kenya

Imports in kind, t

In 2020, Kenya imported 11 271 tonnes of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream, representing a 10.8% decrease from 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports declined by 27.3%, with an average annual decrease of 10.1%. The lowest import volume was recorded in 2018 at 9 562 tonnes. The largest year-on-year decline occurred in 2018 at 38.4%, while the largest increase was recorded in 2019 at 32.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Uganda, the Netherlands, and Belgium were the main sources of Kenya's imports of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream by volume. Uganda accounted for 59.2% of imports, the Netherlands for 19.2%, and Belgium for 7.4%. Together, these three countries supplied 85.8% of Kenya's total imports in kind during this period.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Kenya in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

In 2020, Kenya's imports of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream totaled 34 579 thousand US dollars, showing a substantial 15.9% decrease compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, import value declined by 27.6%, equivalent to an average annual decrease of 10.2%. The lowest import value was recorded in 2018 at 28 433 thousand US dollars. The largest year-on-year decline occurred in 2018 at 40.5%, while the largest increase was recorded in 2019 at 44.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kenya in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Throughout 2017-2020, Uganda and the Netherlands dominated Kenya's imports of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream by value, jointly accounting for 81.7% of total import flows. Other countries held significantly smaller shares during this period.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Kenya in value, 2017-2020