Milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5% market in Kenya

Earlier Report Observations

The market for low-fat milk powder in Kenya expanded from 8 647 tons in 2018 to a peak of 15 010 tons in 2022. This growth was initially fueled by rising urbanization and incomes, which increased consumer demand for value-added dairy products like low-fat milk powder. Government policies, including the National Dairy Development Policy to double milk output by 2030, encouraged investments in processing capacity. A key supply-side boost came in 2022 when the Kenya Dairy Board reported a 19% rise in processor milk purchases, providing more raw material for powder production.

A sharp reversal occurred in 2023, with the market volume falling to 11 614 tons. This decline was directly triggered by the government's temporary suspension of powdered milk imports to protect local farmers, which slashed import volumes. Enforcement actions, including court-ordered disposal of contraband powder, tightened import controls further. Domestic production stabilized around 3 200 tons but could not compensate for the reduced imports, leading to the overall market contraction.

The import-restriction policy continued into 2024, with the Kenya Dairy Board suspending new import permits. Concurrently, domestic milk supplies strengthened, as purchase volumes surged 19.2% in the first half of 2024 due to improved pastures and lower costs. New regulatory proposals, such as the Dairy Industry Bill 2024 mandating timely payments to farmers, aimed to formalize the supply chain and support local powder processing.

Production milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5% in Kenya

In kind, 2017-2020, t

Top producers of milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5%, 2017-2020

World map of production of milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5%, 2017-2020

Kenya's production of milk powder with a fat content of ≤1.5% declined after two years of growth. In 2020, production remained stable at 2 782 tonnes compared to 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production increased by 13.5%, which translates to an annualized growth rate of 4.3%. The highest production volume was recorded in 2019 at 2 789 tonnes, with the largest year-on-year increase occurring in 2018 at 7.1%.

Annual dynamics of production in Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, t

Exports milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5% from Kenya

Exports in kind, t

The export market for milk powder with a fat content of ≤1.5% from Kenya showed an unstable trend during this period. Volumes reached their lowest point in 2020 at 9 tonnes, which was a 42.0% decrease from the previous year, and peaked in 2018 at 49 tonnes, representing a 5.4-fold difference between these years. The largest decline occurred in 2019 at 68.3%, while the largest increase was recorded in 2018 at 111.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, three key markets—South Sudan, Somalia, and Rwanda—collectively accounted for 75.2% of Kenya's total exports in kind of milk powder with a fat content of ≤1.5%.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Kenya in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

The export market in value terms exhibited volatility throughout the timeframe. Values hit their lowest point in 2020 at 18 thousand US dollars, marking a 27.1% year-on-year decrease, and peaked in 2018 at 114 thousand US dollars, a 6.2-fold variation. The largest decline was recorded in 2019 at 78.0%, while the largest increase occurred in 2018 at 123.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kenya in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, Somalia, South Sudan, and Rwanda were the main destinations for Kenya's exports in value terms of milk powder with a fat content of ≤1.5%, together absorbing 70.8% of total exports. Somalia accounted for 30.1%, South Sudan for 26.9%, and Rwanda for 13.8%.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Kenya in value, 2017-2020

Imports milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5% to Kenya

Imports in kind, t

In 2020, Kenya's imports of milk powder with a fat content of ≤1.5% amounted to 9 970 tonnes, showing a slight decrease of 2.8% from 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, imports declined by 7.3%, equivalent to an annualized rate of 2.5%. The lowest import volume was recorded in 2018 at 6 069 tonnes, with the largest decline that year at 43.6%, while the largest increase occurred in 2019 at 69.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Uganda, the Netherlands, and Belgium were the primary partners for Kenya's imports in kind of milk powder with a fat content of ≤1.5%, jointly representing 85.3% of total flows. Uganda accounted for 50.2%, the Netherlands for 25.3%, and Belgium for 9.8%.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Kenya in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

The import market in value terms was characterized by volatility during these years. Values fell to their lowest point in 2018 at 18 112 thousand US dollars and peaked in 2019 at 34 293 thousand US dollars, a 1.9-fold difference. In 2020, imports totaled 30 883 thousand US dollars, down by 9.9% year-on-year. The largest decline was recorded in 2018 at 44.8%, while the largest increase occurred in 2019 at 89.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kenya in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Throughout 2017–2020, Uganda, the Netherlands, and Belgium played leading roles in Kenya's imports in value terms of milk powder with a fat content of ≤1.5%, jointly accounting for 87.3% of total flows. Uganda contributed 57.9%, the Netherlands 21.2%, and Belgium 8.3%.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Kenya in value, 2017-2020