Milk market in Northern Europe

Earlier Report Observations

The milk market volume in Northern Europe fluctuated between 28 689 thousand tons and 31 086 thousand tons from 2018 to 2023. In 2018, organic milk's share reached 32.5% in Denmark, signaling a shift in consumer preferences. After a decline in 2019 and 2020, the market recovered slightly in 2021. A sharp rise to 31 086 thousand tons occurred in 2022, driven by record-high milk prices and demand that exceeded supply, stimulating production. The following year, volume fell to 30 130 thousand tons as high global costs, uncertainty, and a 5% drop in organic milk output constrained the market.

Structural rationalization continued throughout the period, with fewer but larger milk producers improving efficiency and consolidating the industry. This trend, noted from 2018 onward, reshaped production dynamics and supported market adjustments in response to price and demand signals.

In 2024, factors such as the removal of overproduction levies in Norway and rising demand for dairy products were observed, while global events like the war in Ukraine continued to influence feed costs and indirectly affect milk production in the region.

Production milk in Northern Europe

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of milk, 2017-2020

World map of production of milk, 2017-2020

Northern Europe's milk production declined after two years of growth. In 2019, production reached its peak at 30 825 K t, representing a 1.5% increase from the previous year. However, by 2020, output fell to 29 335 K t, marking a modest 4.8% decrease compared to 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, production decreased by 2.3%, with an average annual decline of 0.8%.

Annual dynamics of production in Northern Europe in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

In 2018, milk production in Northern Europe reached its highest value at 85 962 M $ US. The following year, in 2019, it dropped to its lowest point at 78 301 M $ US, reflecting a significant 8.9% decline. By 2020, output recovered slightly to 80 889 M $ US, up 3.3% from 2019. Overall, from 2017 to 2020, production decreased by 3.9%, averaging a 1.3% annual decline.

Annual dynamics of production in Northern Europe in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports milk from Northern Europe

Exports in kind, K t

In 2018, milk exports from Northern Europe hit their lowest point at 1 304 K t, a 25.3% drop from the previous year. The following year, in 2019, exports surged to their peak of 1 838 K t, a substantial 41.0% increase. By 2020, volumes fell to 1 425 K t, representing a significant 22.5% decrease from 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports decreased by 18.3%, with an average annual decline of 6.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Northern Europe in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, milk exports from Northern Europe were distributed relatively evenly among trading partners. Germany accounted for 11.0% of exports in kind, while the Netherlands and Poland each contributed 5.1%. Together, these three countries represented just 21.2% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Northern Europe in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Milk exports from Northern Europe in value terms have increased for three consecutive years. In 2020, exports amounted to 2 820 M $ US, remaining broadly stable compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports grew by 10.1%, with an average annual increase of 3.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Northern Europe in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, Northern Europe's milk exports in value terms were spread across a diverse range of partners. The Netherlands accounted for 9.7% of exports, Germany for 9.0%, and China for 8.0%. Combined, these three countries represented only 26.8% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Northern Europe in value, 2017-2020

Imports milk to Northern Europe

Imports in kind, K t

Milk imports into Northern Europe showed noticeable fluctuations from 2017 to 2020. In 2018, imports peaked at 1 219 K t, a sharp 107.2% increase from the previous year. The following year, in 2019, imports fell by 30.0%. By 2020, volumes stood at 779 K t, marking an 8.6% decrease from 2019. The difference between the peak in 2018 and the low point in 2019 was 2.1-fold.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Northern Europe in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, milk imports into Northern Europe in kind were balanced rather than concentrated among a few partners. Germany accounted for 7.3% of imports, Poland for 3.5%, and the Netherlands for 2.1%. Together, these three countries represented 12.9% of total flows, with many other countries accounting for the remaining 87.1%.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Northern Europe in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Milk imports into Northern Europe in value terms declined for the second consecutive year. In 2018, imports reached their highest value at 1 463 M $ US, an 11.0% increase from the previous year. The following year, in 2019, imports fell by 7.3%. By 2020, volumes decreased to 1 323 M $ US, down 2.4% from 2019.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Northern Europe in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, Northern Europe imported milk from many countries, with no single destination dominating. Even the largest partners—Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium—together accounted for only 26.4% of total imports in value terms.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Northern Europe in value, 2017-2020