Milk and cream market in Northern Europe

Earlier Report Observations

The market for milk and cream in Northern Europe experienced a decline in 2019, with volume falling to 28 тыс. т and value dropping to 66.9 млрд $ US. A sharp recovery followed in 2020 as volume surged to 37.3 тыс. т and value rose to 94.0 млрд $ US. This growth coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic, which heightened focus on food safety and likely boosted demand for dairy products due to increased at-home consumption.

Market expansion continued through 2021 and 2022, peaking at 42.2 тыс. т and 132.9 млрд $ US in 2022. The rise in market value during 2022 was partly driven by price increases for dairy products, attributed to investments for climate adaptation and higher packaging fees. In 2023, market volume slightly decreased to 41.3 тыс. т, while value fell to 109.6 млрд $ US. This contraction occurred alongside stricter production requirements for organic milk, including an increase in the roughage share from 60% to 70%, which led to a decline in the production of organic drinking milk.

Throughout the period, the dairy farm sector consolidated, with a trend toward fewer and larger operations. Regulations for the sale of unpasteurized milk remained stringent, with new rules introduced in September 2024 requiring farm registration and limiting direct sales volumes. Consumer prices continued to rise in 2024 due to increased raw material costs, climate investments, and packaging fees, influencing market dynamics.

Production milk and cream in Northern Europe

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of milk and cream, 2017-2020

World map of production of milk and cream, 2017-2020

Following two consecutive years of decline, milk and cream production in Northern Europe rebounded in 2020. That year, the region produced 37 465 K t of milk and cream, marking a significant 31.2% increase compared to 2019. Looking at the broader period from 2017 to 2020, overall production decreased by 7.5%, which translates to an average annual decline of 2.6%. The lowest production level was recorded in 2019 at 28 555 K t, while the steepest year-on-year drop occurred in 2018, when output fell by 26.8%.

Annual dynamics of production in Northern Europe in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, B $ US

After two years of contraction, the value of milk and cream production in Northern Europe saw an upturn in 2020. The output was valued at 94.2 B $ US that year, representing a substantial 40.2% rise from the previous year. Over the four-year span from 2017 to 2020, however, production value declined by 12.2%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -4.2%. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 67.2 B $ US, and the most pronounced decrease happened that same year, with a 25.9% drop.

Annual dynamics of production in Northern Europe in value, 2017-2020, B $ US

Exports milk and cream from Northern Europe

Exports in kind, K t

In 2020, Northern Europe exported 793 K t of milk and cream, a decrease of 33.8% compared to the previous year. From 2017 to 2020, exports fell by 36.8%, averaging an annual decline of 14.2%. The lowest export volume was in 2018 at 730 K t. The sharpest reduction occurred in 2018 with a 41.9% drop, while the largest increase was recorded in 2019, when exports grew by 64.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Northern Europe in kind, 2017-2020, K t

An analysis of export volumes from 2017 to 2020 reveals a highly diversified market structure. The top three destinations—Germany (12.3% of exports), Poland (5.5%), and the Netherlands (0.9%)—collectively accounted for just 18.7% of total flows. The remaining 81.3% was distributed among a wide range of other trading partners.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Northern Europe in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

For the second year in a row, the value of milk and cream exports from Northern Europe declined. In 2020, exports totaled 1 115 M $ US, down 5.6% from the prior year. Between 2017 and 2020, export value decreased by 8.5%, equivalent to an annualized rate of -2.9%. The peak was reached in 2018 at 1 257 M $ US. The most significant decline occurred in 2019 with a 6.1% drop, while the largest increase was in 2018, when exports rose by 3.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Northern Europe in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, the export market in value terms remained highly diversified. Germany (14.7% of exports), Poland (10.2%), and France (2.6%) together represented only 27.5% of total flows. The remaining 72.5% was spread across a long tail of smaller markets.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Northern Europe in value, 2017-2020

Imports milk and cream to Northern Europe

Imports in kind, K t

The import market displayed notable volatility during the observed period. Imports reached their lowest point in 2017 and peaked in 2018, with a 2.4-fold difference between these years. In 2020, Northern Europe imported 625 K t of milk and cream, a decrease of 7.5% from the previous year. The highest import volume was recorded in 2018 at 1 044 K t. The largest decline occurred in 2019 with a 35.3% drop, while the most substantial increase was in 2018, when imports surged by 142.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Northern Europe in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Between 2017 and 2020, milk and cream imports to Northern Europe were sourced from a wide array of countries. Even the largest suppliers—Germany, Poland, and France—collectively accounted for only 9.9% of total import volumes.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Northern Europe in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

For the second consecutive year, the value of milk and cream imports into Northern Europe declined. In 2020, imports amounted to 858 M $ US, down 2.9% from 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, import value decreased by 3.9%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -1.3%. The peak was in 2018 at 1 031 M $ US. The most significant decline was in 2019 with a 14.2% drop, while the largest increase occurred in 2018, when imports rose by 15.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Northern Europe in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Throughout 2017 to 2020, imports in value terms were not concentrated among a few key markets. Germany (11.9% of imports), Poland (4.0%), and the Netherlands (2.2%) together represented just 18.1% of total flows, with the remainder spread across numerous other partners.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Northern Europe in value, 2017-2020