Milk market in Moldova

Earlier Report Observations

The milk market in Moldova contracted significantly from 2018 to 2023, with production falling from 373 thousand tons to 261 thousand tons. This decline was primarily driven by a reduction in the dairy cow herd and persistently high feed costs, which made local farming less economically viable. Concurrently, imports of milk and dairy products rose, reaching 40 thousand tons in 2023, increasing competitive pressure on domestic producers.

The market faced additional headwinds from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, which reduced demand from the hospitality sector. During this period, the country continued implementing EU sanitary and food safety legislation as part of its Association Agreement, a process that required adjustments across the supply chain. State support for farmers, including per-liter subsidies and grant programs, was maintained throughout but was insufficient to reverse the production downturn.

From 2022 onward, the influx of cheaper Ukrainian milk, described by local sources as 'dumping,' significantly disrupted the raw milk market. This surge in imports depressed purchase prices for Moldovan farmers and contributed to the closure of numerous milk collection points, further straining the domestic supply chain. By 2024, production had hit a multi-decade low, reflecting the sector's growing dependence on foreign suppliers.

Production milk in Moldova

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of milk, 2017-2020

World map of production of milk, 2017-2020

Moldova's milk production has declined for the third year in a row. In 2019, the country produced 331.7 thousand tons of milk, which decreased slightly by 3.0% to 321.7 thousand tons in 2020. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production fell by 27.3%, with an average annual decline of 10.1%.

Annual dynamics of production in Moldova in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports milk from Moldova

Exports in kind, t

Milk exports from Moldova have also dropped for the third consecutive year. In 2019, Moldova exported 209 tons of milk, which fell sharply by 38.7% to 128 tons in 2020. Between 2017 and 2020, exports plummeted by 90.6%, representing an average annual decrease of 54.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Moldova in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Kazakhstan was the dominant destination for Moldova's milk exports, accounting for 87.3% of the total volume. The remaining exports were spread across a variety of smaller countries.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Moldova in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

The value of milk exports from Moldova showed significant fluctuations during this period. In 2019, exports hit their lowest point at 387 thousand US dollars, which was 9.4 times lower than the peak in 2017. In 2020, exports rebounded to 399 thousand US dollars, marking a 3.0% increase from the previous year. The largest decline occurred in 2019, with a drop of 88.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Moldova in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Throughout 2017 to 2020, Kazakhstan clearly led in the value of milk exports from Moldova, capturing 89.2% of the total. Other countries each held much smaller shares in comparison.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Moldova in value, 2017-2020

Imports milk to Moldova

Imports in kind, t

After two years of decline, Moldova's milk imports increased in 2020. In 2019, imports were at their lowest with 17 434 tons, but they rose sharply by 36.7% to 23 840 tons in 2020. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports decreased by 7%, with an average annual decline of 2.4%. The largest drop was in 2019, at 27.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Moldova in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Romania and Ukraine together accounted for 86.5% of Moldova's milk imports by volume. The rest was distributed among other countries, each contributing smaller amounts.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Moldova in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

The value of milk imports into Moldova has risen for the second year in a row. In 2018, imports were at their minimum of 12 553 thousand US dollars, but by 2020, they increased by 46.2% to approximately 19 976 thousand US dollars. Over the 2017-2020 span, imports grew by 46.2%, with an average annual growth rate of 13.5%. The largest decline was in 2018, at 8.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Moldova in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

During 2017 to 2020, Ukraine, Romania, and Belarus were the key partners for Moldova's milk imports by value. Ukraine accounted for 41.1%, Romania for 28.4%, and Belarus for 10.1%, together making up 79.6% of the total import value.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Moldova in value, 2017-2020