Milk market in Lebanon

Earlier Report Observations

The Lebanese milk market volume fell consistently from 409 тыс. т in 2018 to 244 тыс. т in 2023. This decline was initiated by government price-setting for milk in 2018, which coincided with a worsening exchange rate that raised import costs and pressured local production. In 2019, a slight price adjustment and lower global milk prices were overshadowed by reports of rampant illegal competition and smuggling, which weakened the livestock sector. The official currency devaluation in 2020 further increased the cost of imported inputs, although it did trigger a specific surge in demand for infant milk amid supply shortages.

The market contraction accelerated from 2021 amid a deepening economic crisis. Soaring prices for infant milk, driven by reduced state subsidies and high import costs, led to visible consumer scrambles for subsidized products. The government's subsequent price cut for infant milk provided limited, targeted relief. In 2022, the war in Ukraine caused a global food price shock, which pushed local milk prices higher. That same year, authorities introduced a comprehensive Competition Law to fight monopolies and launched a new milk price support agreement, yet these measures could not offset the overwhelming inflationary pressure.

By 2023, prices for subsidized milk had soared by 200%, reflecting the hyperinflation that followed the currency's collapse. This drastic erosion of purchasing power was the primary driver behind the sustained drop in consumption and market volume. Looking ahead to 2024, the full implementation of the Competition Law began to influence pricing policies in the dairy sector, but the market had already lost over 40% of its size since the period's start.

Production milk in Lebanon

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of milk, 2017-2020

World map of production of milk, 2017-2020

Milk production in Lebanon has declined for the second year in a row. In 2020, the country produced 301.5 thousand tons of milk, which represents a slight decrease of 0.6% compared to 2019. Looking at the period from 2017 to 2020, production fell by 8.5%, with an average annual decline of 2.9%. The highest production level was recorded in 2018 at 355.9 thousand tons, marking an 8.0% increase that year. However, the largest drop occurred in 2019, with a significant decline of 14.8%.

Annual dynamics of production in Lebanon in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports milk from Lebanon

Exports in kind, t

The export market for milk from Lebanon showed considerable volatility during the observed period. Exports hit their lowest point in 2019 at 303 tons, representing a sharp decline of 70.1% that year. In contrast, 2020 saw a rebound, with exports reaching 440 tons—a substantial increase of 45.5% compared to 2019. Overall, exports varied widely, with a 4.5-fold difference between the peak in 2017 and the trough in 2019.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Lebanon in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Qatar, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates were consistently the main destinations for Lebanon's milk exports in volume terms. Qatar accounted for 60.5% of exports, Iraq for 11.5%, and the UAE for 8.8%. Together, these three countries represented 80.8% of total export flows during this period.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Lebanon in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

After two years of decline, milk exports from Lebanon in value terms showed a recovery in 2020. Exports amounted to 1.1 million US dollars, marking a strong year-on-year increase of 28.8%. However, over the broader period from 2017 to 2020, exports decreased by 17.6%, which translates to an average annual decline of 6.3%. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 0.9 million US dollars, with a notable drop of 22.7% that year.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Lebanon in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

In value terms from 2017 to 2020, Qatar, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates formed the core market cluster for Lebanon's milk exports. Qatar held a 29.6% share of export value, Iraq accounted for 22.0%, and the UAE made up 17.0%. Combined, these three markets represented 68.6% of total export flows in value during this timeframe.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Lebanon in value, 2017-2020

Imports milk to Lebanon

Imports in kind, t

Lebanon's milk imports in volume terms declined for the second consecutive year. In 2020, imports reached 18 459 tons, reflecting a sharp decrease of 42.0% compared to the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, imports fell by 58.3%, with an average annual decline of 25.3%. The highest import volume was recorded in 2018 at 53 759 tons, which saw a 21.5% increase that year.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Lebanon in kind, 2017-2020, t

During 2017 to 2020, the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, and Denmark were key suppliers of milk to Lebanon in volume terms. The Netherlands accounted for 23.7% of imports, Saudi Arabia for 13.6%, and Denmark for 10.9%. However, their combined share reached only 48.2% of total imports, with the remaining 51.8% distributed among numerous other trading partners.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Lebanon in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Cross-border shipments of milk to Lebanon in value terms declined for the second year in a row. In 2020, imports totaled 67.8 million US dollars, marking a dramatic decrease of 37.1% compared to 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, imports fell by 38.8%, equating to an average annual decline of 15.1%. The peak value was recorded in 2018 at 123.6 million US dollars, which saw an 11.6% increase that year.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Lebanon in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

In value terms from 2017 to 2020, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Czechia led the structure of Lebanon's milk imports. The Netherlands accounted for 28.7% of import value, Denmark for 13.9%, and Czechia for 8.9%. Together, these three countries represented 51.5% of total import flows in value during this period.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Lebanon in value, 2017-2020