Milk market in Eastern Asia

Earlier Report Observations

In 2018, state environmental crackdowns led to the closure of some dairy farms and a reduction in cattle inventory, which temporarily constrained supply growth. However, concurrent government support for dairy breeding systems, including imports of Holstein and Jersey cattle breeds, helped establish high-quality milk source bases and boosted productivity. This facilitated a rise in milk production from 44 662 thousand tons in 2018 to 48 707 thousand tons in 2020, despite the pressure from the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused farm losses and further herd reductions.

Milk production growth continued from 2021 to 2023, reaching 56 367 thousand tons in 2023, driven by sustained productivity gains and industry investment. By 2023, however, the increase in output surpassed consumption growth, leading to a supply surplus. Over 60% of farms operated at a loss, and milk imports declined due to high inventory pressure. Consumer demand for dairy diversified, shifting towards specialized products like A2 protein milk and organic milk, while the overall growth in dairy consumption faced internal headwinds.

A market correction accelerated in 2024, with raw milk production falling by 2.8% for the first time since 2018. This decline was driven by extensive farm losses, affecting 85.6% of operations, and a 4.5% reduction in dairy cattle inventory. New state standards for dairy processing plants raised entry barriers, limiting market competition. Although lower feed prices reduced production costs, milk prices continued to decline, and per capita dairy consumption dropped to 41.5 kg. The industry transitioned towards a focus on quality development, with large-scale farms improving efficiency and product specialization.

Production milk in Eastern Asia

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of milk, 2017-2020

World map of production of milk, 2017-2020

Milk production in Eastern Asia has grown for the third year in a row. In 2020, the region produced 48 707 thousand tonnes of milk, representing a 5.9% increase compared to 2019. Looking at the period from 2017 to 2020, production rose by 10%, with an average annual growth rate of 3.2%.

Annual dynamics of production in Eastern Asia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, B $ US

In 2020, the value of milk production in Eastern Asia was 128.8 billion US dollars, showing little change from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, production value increased by 3.6%, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.2%. The highest value was recorded in 2018 at 130.0 billion US dollars, which saw a 4.6% increase. In contrast, 2019 experienced the largest decline of 1.1%.

Annual dynamics of production in Eastern Asia in value, 2017-2020, B $ US

Exports milk from Eastern Asia

Exports in kind, K t

Milk exports from Eastern Asia have fallen for the second consecutive year. In 2020, the region exported 227 thousand tonnes of milk, a sharp 40.1% drop from 2019. From 2017 to 2020, exports decreased by 24.7%, translating to an annualized decline of 9.0%. The peak was in 2018 with 381 thousand tonnes, which marked a 26.5% increase that year.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Asia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Between 2017 and 2020, the United States, accounting for 2.0% of exports in volume, Asia not elsewhere specified at 1.9%, and Singapore with 0.9%, were the largest buyers of milk from Eastern Asia. Together, they made up 4.8% of total exports, with many smaller partners comprising the remainder.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Asia in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Milk exports from Eastern Asia have declined for the second year in a row. In 2020, export value reached 600 million US dollars, a dramatic 43.4% decrease year-over-year. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports fell by 29.1%, with a compound annual decline of 10.8%. The highest value was in 2018 at 1 109 million US dollars, which saw a 31.2% increase that year.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Asia not elsewhere specified was the leading destination for milk exports from Eastern Asia in value terms, holding a 0.6% share of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Asia in value, 2017-2020

Imports milk to Eastern Asia

Imports in kind, K t

Milk imports into Eastern Asia have increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the region imported 2 443 thousand tonnes of milk, remaining nearly unchanged from 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, imports grew by 34%, equivalent to an annualized rate of 10.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Asia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

During 2017-2020, New Zealand, with 45.8% of imports in volume, Germany at 13.7%, and Australia with 9.9%, were the principal sources for milk imports into Eastern Asia. Together, they accounted for 69.3% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Asia in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

After two years of growth, milk imports into Eastern Asia declined. In 2020, imports totaled 6 001 million US dollars, showing a measured 4.5% decrease compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports increased by 24.1%, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.5%. The highest value was recorded in 2019 at 6 284 million US dollars, which saw a 17.4% increase that year.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, New Zealand, with 48.6% of imports in value, the Netherlands at 10.7%, and Australia with 9.9%, together absorbed 69.2% of total milk imports into Eastern Asia, making them the main sources.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Asia in value, 2017-2020