Milk market in Kenya

Earlier Report Observations

The Kenyan milk market volume rose from 5 065 thousand tonnes in 2018 to 5 740 thousand tonnes in 2019, supported by an 11% increase in formal-sector consumption driven by urban demand and greater consumer awareness of quality. This growth was further aided by the entry of the Kathonzweni Milk Processing Plant in Makueni County, which added local processing capacity, while state-owned New KCC raised farm-gate prices to Sh 38–Sh 40 per litre, expanding its raw-milk market share.

Supply chain disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic led to a slight market contraction to 5 692 thousand tonnes in 2020, though a government stimulus of Sh 53.7 billion helped cushion the sector. The market rebounded strongly to 6 229 thousand tonnes in 2021 following the implementation of the Kenya Dairy Industry Regulations 2021, which introduced a minimum farm-gate price of Sh 33 per litre and stricter safety standards, alongside Brookside Dairy's 6% increase in raw-milk purchase prices.

Drought and high animal-feed levies caused a 15% drop in monthly milk production in 2022, reducing the market volume to 6 004 thousand tonnes. By 2023, formal-market supply grew 7.4% to 811 million kg due to higher farm yields and expanded processing capacity, lifting the market to 6 157 thousand tonnes. The sector continued to shift toward value-added products, with dairy exports rising 49% in value by 2024 as New KCC modernized its factories to consolidate market share.

Production milk in Kenya

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

On a global scale, Kenya ranked as the 28th largest milk producer during the period from 2017 to 2020.

Top producers of milk, 2017-2020

World map of production of milk, 2017-2020

Milk production in Kenya increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, Kenya produced 5 608 thousand tonnes of milk, showing minimal change compared to 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, production grew by 18.8%, which translates to an annualized growth rate of 5.9%.

Annual dynamics of production in Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Kenya's milk production value increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the output of milk was valued at 6 928 million US dollars, representing a substantial gain of 18.1% compared to 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, production value rose by 73.9%, equating to an annualized growth rate of 20.3%.

Annual dynamics of production in Kenya in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports milk from Kenya

Exports in kind, K t

Milk exports from Kenya declined for the third consecutive year. In 2020, exports stood at 0.2 thousand tonnes, which is 46.7% lower year-over-year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, exports decreased by 87.9%, with a compound annual growth rate of -50.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Throughout 2017 to 2020, Tanzania clearly dominated Kenya's milk exports in kind, accounting for 74.4% of total flows, while other countries each held significantly smaller shares.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Kenya in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Kenya's milk exports declined for the third consecutive year. In 2020, exports totalled 0.3 million US dollars, representing a sharp decrease of 37.4% compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, exports fell by 82.3%, equating to an annualized decline of 43.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kenya in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Over 2017 to 2020, Tanzania and South Sudan were the dominant buyers of milk from Kenya, together taking 84.1% of total exports in value terms, with other destinations each accounting for relatively small shares.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Kenya in value, 2017-2020

Imports milk to Kenya

Imports in kind, K t

After a two-year rise, Kenya's milk imports declined. In 2019, imports peaked at 160.6 thousand tonnes, marking the largest increase of 38.9% during this period. In 2020, Kenya imported 84.2 thousand tonnes of milk, reflecting a fall of 47.6% compared to 2019.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In 2017 to 2020, imports of milk to Kenya in kind were highly concentrated on Uganda, which accounted for 94.6% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Kenya in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

After a two-year uptick, Kenya's milk import value declined. In 2019, the maximum value was recorded at 138.9 million US dollars, with the largest increase of 36.2%. In 2020, import value amounted to 79.5 million US dollars, which is 42.8% smaller year-over-year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, imports decreased by 20.4%, with a compound annual growth rate of -7.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kenya in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Throughout 2017 to 2020, Uganda was the main supplier of milk to Kenya, taking 87.0% of total imports in value terms, while other partners had relatively modest shares.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Kenya in value, 2017-2020