Milk market in Bulgaria

Earlier Report Observations

The Bulgarian milk market volume declined from 1.1 million tons in 2018 to 932 thousand tons in 2023. The initial drop in 2019 was influenced by tighter EU-wide milk supplies and an imbalance where demand exceeded available fresh milk on the free market, pressuring the sector.

A sharp spike in energy, fuel, and fertilizer costs in 2022, amplified by the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, raised production expenses and contributed to a reduction in raw milk output and further market contraction. Concurrently, Lidl's farmer markets reported a 62% increase in participating local producers, indicating a strengthening of direct local sales channels.

By 2023, the market faced pressure from consumer price sensitivity and growing competition from lower-cost plant-based dairy alternatives. In 2024, consumer preferences shifted toward milk with higher protein, probiotics, and organic options, while global events like the war in Ukraine introduced additional price volatility. A decrease in raw milk prices also occurred, linked to lower production costs compared to the 2022 peak.

Production milk in Bulgaria

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of milk, 2017-2020

World map of production of milk, 2017-2020

Bulgaria's milk production rebounded after two years of decline. In 2020, the country produced 1 005 K t of milk, marking a 7.0% increase from the previous year. Looking at the period from 2017 to 2020, overall production decreased by 7.9%, which translates to an average annual decline of 2.7%. The lowest production level was recorded in 2019 at 940 K t, with the sharpest drop of 8.4% occurring that same year.

Annual dynamics of production in Bulgaria in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports milk from Bulgaria

Exports in kind, t

Bulgaria's milk exports declined for the second year in a row. In 2020, the country exported 11 561 t of milk, reflecting a 14.0% year-over-year decrease. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports grew by 18.9%, averaging an annual increase of 5.9%. The peak export volume was reached in 2018 at 15 219 t, when exports surged by 56.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Bulgaria in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Greece and Romania accounted for the majority of Bulgaria's milk exports by volume, while other markets played a smaller role.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Bulgaria in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

After rising for two years, Bulgaria's milk exports by value fell in 2020. The country exported milk worth 11 186 K $ US that year, showing a significant 17.6% drop compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, export value increased by 4.2%, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.4%. The highest value was recorded in 2019 at 13 576 K $ US, when exports grew by 13.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Bulgaria in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, Greece, Romania, and Czechia were the primary destinations for Bulgaria's milk exports by value. Greece accounted for 58.5% of export value, Romania for 19.1%, and Czechia for 6.6%, together making up 84.2% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Bulgaria in value, 2017-2020

Imports milk to Bulgaria

Imports in kind, t

Bulgaria's milk imports by volume increased after two years of decline. In 2020, imports totaled 87 337 t, rising by 7.7% year-over-year. Over the 2017-2020 period, import volume decreased by 10.8%, with an average annual decline of 3.7%. The lowest import volume was in 2019 at 81 120 t, when imports fell by 12.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Bulgaria in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Poland, Romania, and Germany were the key sources for Bulgaria's milk imports by volume. Poland contributed 20.9% of imports, Romania 20.6%, and Germany 15.0%, collectively representing 56.5% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Bulgaria in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

Bulgaria's milk imports by value increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, imports amounted to 90 697 K $ US, showing a moderate 3.1% year-over-year gain. Over the 2017-2020 period, import value decreased by 6.8%, averaging an annual decline of 2.3%. The lowest value was in 2018 at 84 477 K $ US, when imports dropped by 13.2%. In contrast, imports grew by 4.1% in 2019.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Bulgaria in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, Poland, Germany, and Romania formed the main group of markets for Bulgaria's milk imports by value. Poland accounted for 24.7% of import value, Germany for 17.0%, and Romania for 12.9%, together comprising 54.6% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Bulgaria in value, 2017-2020