Milk market in Northern Africa

Earlier Report Observations

The milk market in Northern Africa expanded from 18.0 million tonnes in 2018 to 18.6 million tonnes in 2020. This initial growth was driven by a substantial increase in milk production in Morocco, where output rose by 17% supported by state-backed genetic improvement programs and a growing dairy herd.

Market volume continued to rise in 2021, reaching 18.9 million tonnes, but then stabilized in 2022 and fell to 17.8 million tonnes in 2023. This shift coincided with global market conditions where African demand for milk powder remained highly price-sensitive, restraining trade, while weaker worldwide production and reduced international transactions, particularly with China, affected supply dynamics.

In 2024, Algeria, a major regional consumer, intensified efforts to strengthen its local dairy industry by commissioning a large new processing plant. Demand across North Africa increased, though global trade in skimmed milk powder hit a seven-year low due to price sensitivity and geopolitical tensions.

Production milk in Northern Africa

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of milk, 2017-2020

World map of production of milk, 2017-2020

Milk production in Northern Africa increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, the region produced 17 947 K t of milk, marking a modest 2.4% increase compared to the previous year. The lowest production level was recorded in 2018 at 17 303 K t, which also saw the largest decline of 3.6%.

Annual dynamics of production in Northern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Following a two-year decline, milk production in Northern Africa rebounded. In 2020, the output was valued at 24 050 M $ US, showing a gradual year-over-year increase of 8.5%. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production decreased by 27%, with a compound annual growth rate of 10.0%. The minimum value occurred in 2019 at 22 174 M $ US, which also experienced the largest decline of 22.0%.

Annual dynamics of production in Northern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports milk from Northern Africa

Exports in kind, K t

After two years of growth, cross-border shipments of milk from Northern Africa declined. In 2020, exports were recorded at 38.9 K t, representing a robust drop of 11.3% compared to 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, exports increased by 75%, with a compound annual growth rate of 20.5%. The peak value was reached in 2019 at 43.9 K t, while the largest increase of 44.3% occurred in 2018.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Northern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Mauritania, Palestine, and Saudi Arabia were the largest buyers of milk from Northern Africa in terms of volume, accounting for 25.9%, 7.5%, and 2.7% of exports in kind, respectively. Together, they represented 36.1% of total exports, indicating a market with a broad range of smaller partners.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Northern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Following a two-year gain, milk shipments from Northern Africa to abroad declined. In 2020, the region exported 52 M $ US of milk, marking a 6.1% drop compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, exports increased by 27.7%, equating to an annualized rate of 8.5%. The highest value was recorded in 2019 at 55 M $ US, while the largest increase of 29.2% occurred in 2018.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Northern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Mauritania, Saudi Arabia, and Palestine formed the largest group of buyers of milk from Northern Africa in value terms, contributing 17.6%, 11.9%, and 4.7% of exports, respectively. Their combined share was limited to 34.2% of total exports, reflecting a diversified country structure.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Northern Africa in value, 2017-2020

Imports milk to Northern Africa

Imports in kind, K t

In 2020, foreign milk supplies to Northern Africa amounted to 696.5 K t, equivalent to a moderate year-over-year rise of 4.8%. The lowest import volume was recorded in 2019 at 664.8 K t, which also saw the largest decline of 12.6%. The peak value occurred in 2018 at 761.0 K t, with the largest increase of 8.4% in that year.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Northern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, the partner landscape for imports in kind was diverse. New Zealand, France, and Uruguay were the top suppliers, accounting for 20.0%, 9.7%, and 8.2% of imports in kind, respectively. Together, they formed only 37.9% of total flows, with the remaining 62.1% coming from many other countries.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Northern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

After a two-year fall, milk imports into Northern Africa increased. In 2020, imports totalled 1 771 M $ US, reflecting a solid year-over-year rise of 14.9%. The minimum value was recorded in 2019 at 1 542 M $ US, which also experienced the largest decline of 7.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Northern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

The structure of imports in value terms from 2017 to 2020 points to a diversified set of partners. New Zealand, Uruguay, and France were the leading suppliers, contributing 25.7%, 10.6%, and 10.4% of imports in value terms, respectively. Jointly, they accounted for only 46.6% of total flows, while the remaining 53.4% was dispersed among numerous smaller markets.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Northern Africa in value, 2017-2020