Milk and cream market in MERCOSUR

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2021, the milk and cream market in MERCOSUR saw steady volume growth, rising from 52.1 million tons to 54.8 million tons. This expansion was largely driven by increasing consumption of fresh dairy products in Brazil, where consumer preference for quality items and supportive regulation boosted demand. The trend continued as the hospitality sector recovered, with more dining out and takeaway orders further lifting sales.

In 2022, high inflation in Brazil pushed dairy prices up by 22%, while formal milk production in the country declined by 5%, leading to higher imports to cover domestic needs. That same year, new lactose-free product launches entered the market, catering to health-conscious consumers and expanding product variety. By 2023, adverse La Niña weather conditions in Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay restrained milk output, slowing volume growth to 55.4 million tons, while the market's monetary value retreated from its 2022 peak as earlier cost pressures eased.

Production milk and cream in MERCOSUR

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of milk and cream, 2017-2020

World map of production of milk and cream, 2017-2020

MERCOSUR's milk and cream production has grown for the third year in a row. In 2020, the region produced 54 365 thousand tons, marking a 2.5% increase from 2019. Looking at the period from 2017 to 2020, production rose by 6.6%, which translates to an average annual growth rate of 2.2%.

Annual dynamics of production in MERCOSUR in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

MERCOSUR's milk and cream production value has increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, the output was valued at 76 654 million US dollars, up 13.4% compared to the previous year. From 2017 to 2020, production value grew by 19.8%, averaging 6.2% per year. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 61 286 million US dollars, which also saw the largest decline of 4.2%.

Annual dynamics of production in MERCOSUR in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports milk and cream from MERCOSUR

Exports in kind, t

Milk and cream exports from MERCOSUR have declined for the third consecutive year. In 2020, exports reached 16 394 tons, a 2.5% decrease from 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports fell by 21.1%, with a compound annual growth rate of -7.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from MERCOSUR in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, MERCOSUR's milk and cream exports in kind were distributed across a wide range of partner countries. The Philippines accounted for 33.4% of exports, China for 6.5%, and the United Arab Emirates for 5.9%, together making up 45.8% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from MERCOSUR in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

Milk and cream exports in value terms from MERCOSUR have increased for the second year in a row. In 2020, exports totaled 23 115 thousand US dollars, a 7.8% rise from 2019. However, over the 2017-2020 period, exports decreased by 11.3%, with an average annual decline of 3.9%. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 21 151 thousand US dollars, which also experienced the largest drop of 18.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from MERCOSUR in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

In the 2017-2020 period, the partner landscape for milk and cream exports in value terms was diverse. The Philippines contributed 31.1% of exports, the United Arab Emirates 13.9%, and the United States 4.8%, together accounting for 49.8% of total flows. The remaining 50.2% was distributed among many other countries.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from MERCOSUR in value, 2017-2020

Imports milk and cream to MERCOSUR

Imports in kind, t

Milk and cream imports into MERCOSUR showed significant fluctuations during the period. The lowest volume was recorded in 2018 at 1 022 tons, which saw the largest decline of 45.5%. In 2019, imports surged by 82.4%, and in 2020, they reached 2 326 tons, a 24.8% increase year-over-year. From the trough in 2018 to the peak in 2020, imports increased by a factor of 2.3.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to MERCOSUR in kind, 2017-2020, t

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to MERCOSUR in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

Milk and cream imports in value terms into MERCOSUR exhibited irregular changes, reflecting a volatile market. The lowest value was recorded in 2017, while the peak occurred in 2020, with a 2.7-fold difference between these years. In 2020, imports stood at 5 650 thousand US dollars, a sharp 92.1% increase from the previous year. The largest decline was recorded in 2019 at 22.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to MERCOSUR in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Chile was the leading supplier of milk and cream to MERCOSUR, holding a share of 0.8%.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to MERCOSUR in value, 2017-2020