Maize market in Sub-Saharan Africa

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2020, the maize market volume in Sub-Saharan Africa grew from 79 149 thousand tons to 88 901 thousand tons. This expansion occurred against the backdrop of maize remaining the region's primary staple cereal, with consumption equivalent to rice and wheat combined. However, low fertilizer usage, applied on only about one-third of cultivated area, limited yield potential. Production was concentrated in South Africa, Nigeria, and Ethiopia, which together accounted for 45% of regional output, while a technological gap between high-input farming in South Africa and low-input practices in Nigeria created significant productivity disparities.

In 2021-2022, market volume stabilized around 88 000 thousand tons, with minor fluctuations. Rapid urbanization in some countries accelerated demand for processed maize products, shifting consumer preferences and supply chains. The approval of genetically modified (TELA) maize in Ethiopia in 2022, followed by insect-resistant and drought-tolerant varieties in Nigeria, marked a policy shift aimed at enhancing production resilience and future yields.

By 2023, market volume reached 91 046 thousand tons, even as maize prices surged by over 70% in early 2024 due to local currency weakness and inflation. Monetary policy responses, such as the Bank of Zambia's interest rate hike, influenced market conditions. The introduction of genetically modified maize varieties in Nigeria and Ethiopia in 2024 underscored ongoing efforts to boost productivity amid production constraints and rising import needs.

Production maize in Sub-Saharan Africa

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of maize, 2017-2020

World map of production of maize, 2017-2020

After two years of decline, maize production in Sub-Saharan Africa rebounded. In 2020, the region produced 86 442 thousand tonnes of maize, representing a 10.6% increase compared to the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production grew by 5.7%, with an average annual growth rate of 1.9%. The lowest production level was recorded in 2019 at 78 154 thousand tonnes, while the largest decline occurred in 2018, when production fell by 3.9%.

Annual dynamics of production in Sub-Saharan Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports maize from Sub-Saharan Africa

Exports in kind, K t

Market performance showed significant fluctuations during this period. Exports reached their lowest point in 2019 and peaked in 2020, with a 7.4-fold difference between these years. In 2020, Sub-Saharan Africa's maize exports totaled 2 828 thousand tonnes, marking a sharp increase of 643.7% compared to the previous year. The minimum export volume was recorded in 2019 at 380 thousand tonnes, and the largest decline also occurred in 2019, when exports dropped by 85.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Sub-Saharan Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Japan, Vietnam, and South Korea played notable but not dominant roles as buyers of maize from Sub-Saharan Africa. Japan accounted for 9.7% of exports in kind, Vietnam for 7.6%, and South Korea for 5.8%. Together, these three countries represented only 23.1% of total exports in kind.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Sub-Saharan Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

The market displayed volatility over the observed period. Exports in value terms reached their lowest point in 2019 and peaked in 2020, with a 1.8-fold difference between these years. In 2020, the value of maize exports from Sub-Saharan Africa amounted to 749 million US dollars, showing a dramatic year-on-year increase of 76.5%. The minimum value was recorded in 2019 at 424 million US dollars, and the largest decline also occurred in 2019, when export value fell by 37.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Sub-Saharan Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, maize from Sub-Saharan Africa was exported to a diverse range of markets. Japan accounted for 7.3% of exports in value terms, Vietnam for 6.5%, and South Korea for 4.7%. Together, these three countries represented only 18.6% of total export value, while numerous smaller destinations made up the remaining 81.4%.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Sub-Saharan Africa in value, 2017-2020

Imports maize to Sub-Saharan Africa

Imports in kind, K t

Maize imports to Sub-Saharan Africa increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, imports reached 5 288 thousand tonnes, showing a dramatic rise of 45.5% compared to the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, imports grew by 8.6%, with an average annual growth rate of 2.8%. The lowest import volume was recorded in 2018 at 3 062 thousand tonnes, and the largest decline also occurred in 2018, when imports fell by 37.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Sub-Saharan Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

During 2017–2020, maize imports to Sub-Saharan Africa in kind were relatively evenly distributed among suppliers. Argentina accounted for 25.5% of imports in kind, Mexico for 7.4%, and the United States for 4.4%. Together, these three countries represented only 37.4% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Sub-Saharan Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

The value of maize imports to Sub-Saharan Africa increased for the second year in a row. In 2020, import value amounted to 972 million US dollars, marking a dramatic increase of 35.0% compared to 2019. However, over the period from 2017 to 2020, import value decreased by 20.6%, with an average annual decline of 7.4%. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 657 million US dollars, and the largest decline also occurred in 2018, when import value dropped by 46.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Sub-Saharan Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, maize imports to Sub-Saharan Africa in value terms were not heavily concentrated. Argentina accounted for 21.9% of imports in value terms, Mexico for 8.3%, and the United States for 6.0%. Together, these three suppliers captured only 36.1% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Sub-Saharan Africa in value, 2017-2020