Maize flour and cereals market in Rwanda

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2020, the maize flour and cereals market in Rwanda experienced significant fluctuations. In 2018, state-led initiatives by the Rwanda Agriculture Board, including farmer training, subsidized inputs, and production quotas, supported output. The entry of Bakhresa Rwanda from Tanzania increased competition and accessibility. However, the market volume fell to 335.5 thousand tons in 2019 despite continued support from the World Food Programme's strategic plan and investments in milling technology. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 caused price speculation and volatility, but market volume rebounded to 413.2 thousand tons, likely due to heightened demand for staple foods.

Between 2021 and 2023, external shocks and product innovation shaped the market. Market volume dropped to 357.4 thousand tons in 2021 amid persistent reliance on wheat imports and company diversification efforts. In 2022, the war in Ukraine indirectly boosted local demand by raising prices of imported cereals, while the introduction of fortified whole-grain maize flour in school feeding programs created a new product segment. These factors helped lift market volume to 409.4 thousand tons. By 2023, shifting consumer preferences toward nutritious fortified flour and regional demand drove further growth to 427.3 thousand tons.

Production maize flour and cereals in Rwanda

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of maize flour and cereals, 2017-2020

World map of production of maize flour and cereals, 2017-2020

In 2020, Rwanda produced 427.5 thousand tons of maize flour and cereals, marking a 15.0% year-over-year increase. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production grew by 14.4%, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.6%. The lowest production level was recorded in 2019 at 371.7 thousand tons, which represented a decline of 10.4%.

Annual dynamics of production in Rwanda in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports maize flour and cereals from Rwanda

Exports in kind, t

Market performance showed significant fluctuations during this period. From 2018 to 2020, the difference between the highest and lowest points was 3.1 times. In 2020, Rwanda exported 14 989 tons of maize flour and cereals, a decrease of 60.6% compared to the previous year. The peak export volume was recorded in 2018 at 47 101 tons, which saw an increase of 134.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Rwanda in kind, 2017-2020, t

Between 2017 and 2020, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda formed the core of Rwanda's maize flour and cereals exports, together accounting for 99.6% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Rwanda in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

Maize flour and cereals export volumes from Rwanda declined for the second consecutive year. In 2020, export value totaled 3 898 thousand US dollars, down 52.4% year-over-year. Between 2017 and 2020, exports decreased by 38.2%, equivalent to an annualized decline of 14.8%. The highest export value was recorded in 2018 at 9 621 thousand US dollars, which represented an increase of 52.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Rwanda in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Rwanda's export structure in value terms was heavily concentrated on the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which accounted for 81.1% of total flows, with other partners making up the remainder.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Rwanda in value, 2017-2020

Imports maize flour and cereals to Rwanda

Imports in kind, t

Market performance exhibited noticeable fluctuations during this period. Import volumes reached their lowest point in 2020 and peaked in 2018, with a 60-fold difference between these years. In 2020, Rwanda imported 639 tons of maize flour and cereals, reflecting a sharp decline of 64.4% compared to 2019. The maximum import volume was recorded in 2018 at 38 200 tons. The largest decline occurred in 2019 at 95.3%, while the largest increase was in 2018 at 22.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Rwanda in kind, 2017-2020, t

Throughout 2017 to 2020, Uganda dominated Rwanda's maize flour and cereals import structure in kind, consistently accounting for 98.0% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Rwanda in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

The market showed an unstable trend throughout this timeframe. Import values were at their lowest in 2020 and highest in 2018, with a 34-fold difference between these points. In 2020, Rwanda's cross-border shipments of maize flour and cereals stood at 309 thousand US dollars, showing an abrupt decrease of 65.3% year-over-year. The maximum import value was recorded in 2018 at 10 656 thousand US dollars. The largest decline occurred in 2019 at 91.6%, while the largest increase was in 2018 at 34.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Rwanda in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Uganda almost entirely determined the geographical structure of Rwanda's maize flour and cereals imports in value terms, with a share of 96.3% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Rwanda in value, 2017-2020