Maize flour and cereals market in Namibia

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2021, the maize flour and cereals market in Namibia experienced fluctuations, with market volume reaching 113 000 t in 2019 before declining to 98 000 t in 2021. During this period, the Namibian Agronomic Board (NAB) classified white maize, wheat, and mahangu as controlled crops under the Agronomic Industry Act, mandating import-export permits and marketing agreements. The continued dominance of NAB in setting floor prices for white maize and wheat influenced millers' cost structures. In 2020, import restrictions on wheat flour were implemented, increasing reliance on domestic milling capacity. The following year, the White Maize Marketing Mechanism was introduced to formalize procurement channels, and state-owned Namib Mills expanded its processing capacity, laying groundwork for future market expansion.

The market rebounded sharply in 2022, with volume jumping to 137 000 t, and further grew to 160 000 t in 2023. This surge was supported by NAB's publication of commodity floor-price tables for white maize and wheat in 2022, which anchored price expectations and encouraged production. Despite severe drought in the Maize Triangle in 2023 reducing rain-fed white maize output, Namibia's increased reliance on imported maize for flour production helped sustain manufacturing. The regional maize supply deficit in Southern Africa also contributed to higher import needs, reflected in rising cereal import bills.

In 2024, the Ministry of Agriculture estimated a 53% drop in national cereal production compared to 2022/23, confirming reduced local maize availability. Food inflation eased, but record South African white maize prices posed a risk of price spikes for maize flour. NAB appointed new leadership, potentially affecting regulatory enforcement, and discussions on EU-style fortification mandates indicated possible future labeling requirements for maize flour.

Production maize flour and cereals in Namibia

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of maize flour and cereals, 2017-2020

World map of production of maize flour and cereals, 2017-2020

Namibia's maize flour and cereals production saw a two-year improvement before declining. In 2019, production reached its peak at 109.7 thousand tons, marking a 4.8% increase. However, by 2020, output had fallen to 100.5 thousand tons, representing an 8.3% decrease compared to the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production decreased by 3.7%, which translates to an annualized decline of 1.2%.

Annual dynamics of production in Namibia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Namibia's maize flour and cereals production experienced a two-year uptick before declining. In 2019, the value of output peaked at 65 172 thousand US dollars, with a 4.6% increase. By 2020, this had dropped to 57 538 thousand US dollars, down 11.7% from the previous year. From 2017 to 2020, production value decreased by 7.2%, corresponding to a compound annual growth rate of -2.5%.

Annual dynamics of production in Namibia in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Exports maize flour and cereals from Namibia

Exports in kind, t

The data reveals irregular changes, indicating a volatile market environment. In 2018, exports bottomed out at 133 tons, marking the largest decline of 47.4%. The following year, 2019, saw the largest increase of 359.9%. By 2020, exports peaked at 1 408 tons, representing a steep gain of 131.0% compared to the previous year. The difference between the peak in 2020 and the low in 2018 was a 10.6-fold multiple.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Namibia in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Angola, Australia, and South Africa formed the core of Namibia's exports in kind. Angola accounted for 46.9% of exports, Australia for 24.8%, and South Africa for 20.6%. Together, these three countries represented 92.2% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Namibia in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

The data reveals irregular changes, indicating a volatile market environment. In 2018, exports in value terms fell to their lowest point at 79 thousand US dollars, with the largest decline of 47.3%. The following year, 2019, recorded the largest increase of 359.3%. By 2020, exports peaked at 806 thousand US dollars, marking a rise of 122.5% year-over-year. The amplitude between the peak in 2020 and the low in 2018 was 10.2 times.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Namibia in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Angola, Australia, and South Africa stood out as the main markets for Namibia's exports in value terms. Angola represented 39.0% of exports, Australia 28.6%, and South Africa 25.5%. Collectively, these three countries accounted for 93.0% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Namibia in value, 2017-2020

Imports maize flour and cereals to Namibia

Imports in kind, t

The market showed signs of volatility over the observed period. In 2017, imports reached their trough, while in 2019 they peaked at 4 383 tons, with the largest increase of 236.4% recorded in 2018. By 2020, import volume had fallen to 2 172 tons, equivalent to an abrupt decline of 50.4% from the previous year. The gap between the peak in 2019 and the low in 2017 was 7.5-fold.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Namibia in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, the market structure for imports in kind was highly concentrated, with South Africa alone responsible for 97.6% of total imports.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Namibia in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

After a two-year increase, Namibia's maize flour and cereals imports from abroad declined. In 2019, imports reached their maximum value of 2 037 thousand US dollars, with the largest increase of 59.3%. By 2020, imports had dropped to 1 077 thousand US dollars, equivalent to a decrease of 47.1% compared to the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, imports increased by 30.5%, which equates to an annualized rate of 9.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Namibia in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, imports in value terms of maize flour and cereals to Namibia were almost entirely concentrated in South Africa, whose share reached 97.7%.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Namibia in value, 2017-2020