Maize flour and cereals market in Mexico

Earlier Report Observations

The Mexican maize flour and cereals market expanded significantly from 13.7 million tonnes in 2018 to over 16.1 million tonnes by 2023. The most pronounced jump occurred in 2019, when volume rose by more than 2 million tonnes, after which the market entered a phase of stabilization with minor year-to-year fluctuations.

In 2022, market volume held steady at around 15.6 million tonnes. This stability coincided with a record price hike for maize flour, which raised the cost of tortillas for consumers. During the same year, competition authorities opened an investigation into alleged sustained price increases by industry leader Gruma, while a draft of updated official standard NOM‑187 proposed new tortilla classifications and mandatory labeling of masa and flour content, potentially affecting market dynamics.

Production continued its upward trend, reaching 16.3 million tonnes in 2023. Mexico also consolidated its position as the world's leading exporter of maize flour in 2022, with export values hitting $156 million, reflecting the industry's strong outward orientation.

Production maize flour and cereals in Mexico

In kind, 2018-2021, K t

Mexico was one of the world's leading producers of maize flour and cereals from 2018 to 2021, ranking second globally by production volume during this period.

Top producers of maize flour and cereals, 2018-2021

World map of production of maize flour and cereals, 2018-2021

After two consecutive years of growth, Mexico's production of maize flour and cereals declined slightly. In 2021, the country produced 15 742 thousand tons, representing a modest decrease of 0.6% compared to 2020. Over the entire 2018-2021 period, production increased by 13.1%, with an average annual growth rate of 4.2%. The highest production level was achieved in 2020 at 15 836 thousand tons, while the most significant year-over-year increase occurred in 2019 at 12.8%.

Annual dynamics of production in Mexico in kind, 2018-2021, K t

Exports maize flour and cereals from Mexico

Exports in kind, K t

Export volumes showed considerable volatility throughout the period. The market reached its lowest point in 2019 at 18.0 thousand tons and peaked in 2018, with a 17-fold difference between these extremes. In 2021, Mexico exported 213.2 thousand tons of maize flour and cereals, representing a 5.5% decrease from the previous year. The most substantial decline occurred in 2019 at 94.2%, while the largest increase was recorded in 2020 at 1 154.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Mexico in kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, the United States and Venezuela were the dominant destinations for Mexico's maize flour and cereal exports, together accounting for 98.1% of total export volumes.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Mexico in kind, 2018-2021

Exports in value, M $ US

Export values experienced significant fluctuations during this period. The market bottomed out in 2019 at 13.5 million US dollars and reached its peak in 2018, with the highest value being 12.6 times greater than the lowest. In 2021, Mexico's cross-border shipments of maize flour and cereals totaled 119.9 million US dollars, reflecting a 5.6% decrease compared to 2020. The most substantial decline occurred in 2019 at 92.1%, while the largest increase was recorded in 2020 at 843.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Mexico in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Between 2018 and 2021, the United States was the dominant buyer of Mexican maize flour and cereals in value terms, accounting for 79.0% of total export revenue, with other countries comprising the remaining share.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Mexico in value, 2018-2021

Imports maize flour and cereals to Mexico

Imports in kind, K t

Mexico imported 33.6 thousand tons of maize flour and cereals in 2021, marking a substantial 56.9% decrease compared to the previous year. Over the 2018-2021 period, imports declined by 55.9%, equivalent to an average annual decrease of 23.9%. The highest import volume was recorded in 2020 at 78.1 thousand tons, which also saw the largest year-over-year increase at 10.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Mexico in kind, 2018-2021, K t

Throughout the 2018-2021 period, the United States dominated Mexico's import structure for maize flour and cereals, consistently representing 99.5% of total import volumes.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Mexico in kind, 2018-2021

Imports in value, M $ US

In 2021, Mexico's imports of maize flour and cereals reached 20.3 million US dollars, representing a 46.9% decrease from the previous year. Over the 2018-2021 period, import values declined by 48.7%, with an average annual decrease of 20.0%. The largest year-over-year increase occurred in 2020 at 7.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Mexico in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

From 2018 to 2021, the United States effectively dominated Mexico's imports of maize flour and cereals in value terms, accounting for 99.1% of total import expenditure.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Mexico in value, 2018-2021