Concentrated not sweetened milk and cream market in South Africa

Earlier Report Observations

Production of concentrated not sweetened milk and cream in South Africa declined steadily from over 20 232 thousand $ US in 2018 to 11 933 thousand $ US in 2023. This contraction was driven by a series of climate-related challenges, starting with severe drought conditions in Eastern and Western Cape that prompted market consolidation and reduced the number of milk producers. Subsequent years saw continued pressure from structural industry changes and unpredictable weather, including flooding in KwaZulu Natal in 2021 and further severe weather in 2022, which damaged production capacity and limited output.

Domestic market size, after a sharp drop to 3 076 thousand $ US in 2019, recovered to around 5 500 thousand $ US from 2020 onward. The rebound was supported by pandemic-induced shifts in consumer demand, with volume increases in flavored milk and value-added dairy beverages as school reopening post-lockdown boosted consumption. Retail price rises from late 2022, however, tempered demand for most dairy products, contributing to market stabilization in 2022-2023.

By 2023, South Africa turned into a net exporter of dairy products, reflecting a shift in trade balance. Lower feed prices from late 2022 improved dairy farmer profitability, while product innovation expanded, including growth in plant-based dairy alternatives that began competing with traditional concentrated milk and cream.

Production concentrated not sweetened milk and cream in South Africa

In kind, 2018-2021, t

Globally, South Africa ranked as the 13th largest producer of concentrated unsweetened milk and cream from 2018 to 2021.

Top producers of concentrated not sweetened milk and cream, 2018-2021

World map of production of concentrated not sweetened milk and cream, 2018-2021

Following two years of growth, South Africa's production of concentrated unsweetened milk and cream experienced a decline. In 2021, the country produced 46 678 tonnes, marking a 1.7% decrease from 2020. Over the 2018-2021 period, production rose by 7.9%, translating to an annualized growth rate of 2.6%. The peak output occurred in 2020, reaching 47 475 tonnes, which also saw the largest annual increase at 9.0%.

Annual dynamics of production in South Africa in kind, 2018-2021, t

In value, 2018-2021, K $ US

After two years of contraction, South Africa's production value for concentrated unsweetened milk and cream rebounded. In 2021, the output was valued at 14 631 thousand US dollars, showing a modest increase of 2.1% compared to the previous year. However, from 2018 to 2021, overall production value fell by 27.7%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -10.2%. The lowest value was recorded in 2020 at 14 324 thousand US dollars, which also experienced the steepest decline of 17.9%.

Annual dynamics of production in South Africa in value, 2018-2021, K $ US

Exports concentrated not sweetened milk and cream from South Africa

Exports in kind, t

South Africa's exports of concentrated unsweetened milk and cream declined for the second year in a row. In 2021, exports totaled 30 223 tonnes, representing a 16.9% drop from the previous year. Despite this recent downturn, exports grew by 8.2% over the 2018-2021 period, with a CAGR of 2.7%. The highest export volume was in 2019 at 37 265 tonnes, which also saw the largest annual increase of 33.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from South Africa in kind, 2018-2021, t

From 2018 to 2021, South Africa's exports of concentrated unsweetened milk and cream were overwhelmingly concentrated in Botswana, which accounted for 98.3% of the total volume.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from South Africa in kind, 2018-2021

Exports in value, K $ US

South Africa's export value for concentrated unsweetened milk and cream fell for the second consecutive year. In 2021, exports amounted to 9 473 thousand US dollars, reflecting a significant decrease of 13.7% compared to 2020. Over the 2018-2021 span, export value dropped by 27.5%, with a CAGR of -10.2%. The peak was in 2019 at 14 921 thousand US dollars, which also recorded the largest annual increase of 14.2%, while the steepest decline occurred in 2020 at 26.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from South Africa in value, 2018-2021, K $ US

During 2018-2021, Botswana was the dominant market for South Africa's exports in value terms, holding an 81.5% share of total flows, with other markets making up the remainder.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from South Africa in value, 2018-2021

Imports concentrated not sweetened milk and cream to South Africa

Imports in kind, t

The market for imports showed notable fluctuations during this period. Import volumes reached their lowest point in 2018 and peaked in 2019, with a 2.1-fold difference between these years. In 2021, South Africa imported 253 tonnes of concentrated unsweetened milk and cream, a 5.6% decrease from the previous year. The highest volume was in 2019 at 380 tonnes, which also saw the largest annual increase of 110.0%, while the sharpest decline occurred in 2020 at 29.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to South Africa in kind, 2018-2021, t

From 2018 to 2021, Germany and the Netherlands were the primary sources for South Africa's imports in volume, together accounting for 89.1% of total flows, with other partners contributing the rest.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to South Africa in kind, 2018-2021

Imports in value, K $ US

The import market exhibited volatility over the observed period. From the low in 2018 to the high in 2019, import values varied by 1.8 times. In 2021, South Africa's imports of concentrated unsweetened milk and cream amounted to 455 thousand US dollars, a 9.3% increase from the previous year. The peak value was in 2019 at 554 thousand US dollars, which also recorded the largest annual increase of 80.8%, while the most significant decline was in 2020 at 24.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to South Africa in value, 2018-2021, K $ US

Between 2018 and 2021, Germany and the Netherlands were the leading suppliers of concentrated unsweetened milk and cream to South Africa in value terms, jointly capturing 92.9% of total imports, with other destinations each holding relatively minor shares.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to South Africa in value, 2018-2021