Coal market in Central Asia

Earlier Report Observations

The coal market in Central Asia contracted from 98.3 million tonnes in 2018 to 92.1 million tonnes in 2020. It then rebounded to 93.5 million tonnes in 2021 and surged to 100.6 million tonnes in 2022. The recovery in 2021 was driven by a 6% rise in global coal consumption, which boosted demand across Asia including Central Asia. The strong growth in 2022 resulted from EU sanctions on Russia that redirected Russian coal exports from Europe to Asian markets, increasing coal availability in the region, alongside infrastructure developments in Russia that facilitated exports to Asia.

From 2023, coal imports into the region rose to 1.9 million tonnes while exports declined to 28.0 million tonnes, a trend that continued into 2024 with imports reaching 2.0 million tonnes and exports falling to 27.6 million tonnes. This shift reflected growing local demand, supported by increased consumption from power-generating organizations in Kazakhstan and sustained coal demand growth in Asia. In 2024, Bogatyr Komir LLP remained the key player in Kazakhstan's coal mining with a 38.1% share, and logistics constraints from EU sanctions impacted metallurgical coal exports from Russia to Asia, influencing regional trade. The introduction of a capacity market in Kazakhstan since 2019 also encouraged renewable energy use, affecting coal demand over time.

Production coal in Central Asia

In kind, 2017-2020, M t

Top producers of coal, 2017-2020

World map of production of coal, 2017-2020

Coal production in Central Asia declined for the second year in a row. In 2020, the region produced 118.3 million tonnes of coal, representing a 0.9% decrease compared to 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, production grew by 2.4%, with an average annual growth rate of 0.8%. The highest production level was recorded in 2018 at 122.6 million tonnes, which marked a 6.1% increase. The most significant decline occurred in 2019, when production fell by 2.6%.

Annual dynamics of production in Central Asia in kind, 2017-2020, M t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Following two years of growth, Central Asia's coal production value declined. In 2020, coal output was valued at 1 935 million US dollars, showing a 20.7% drop compared to the previous year. From 2017 to 2020, production value decreased by 2.1%, with an average annual decline of 0.7%. The peak value was reached in 2019 at 2 440 million US dollars, while the largest increase occurred in 2018 with a 21.4% rise.

Annual dynamics of production in Central Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports coal from Central Asia

Exports in kind, K t

After two years of decline, coal export volumes from Central Asia rebounded. In 2020, exports totaled 27 979 thousand tonnes, an 11.1% increase compared to 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, exports decreased by 2.4%, equivalent to an average annual decline of 0.8%. The lowest export volume was recorded in 2019 at 25 179 thousand tonnes, and the largest decline occurred in 2018 with a 10.5% drop.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Central Asia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Russia accounted for 76.2% of Central Asia's total coal exports by volume. The remaining exports were distributed among numerous countries, each with relatively small individual shares.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Central Asia in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Following two years of improvement, the value of coal exports from Central Asia declined. In 2020, export value amounted to 457.4 million US dollars, an 11.1% decrease compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, export value fell by 6.8%, representing an average annual decline of 2.3%. The highest value was recorded in 2019 at 514.4 million US dollars, while the largest increase occurred in 2018 with a 2.4% rise.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Central Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

During the 2017-2020 period, Russia, Ukraine, and Switzerland formed the core of Central Asia's coal exports by value. Russia accounted for 50.0% of export value, Ukraine for 16.3%, and Switzerland for 12.4%. Together, these three countries represented 78.7% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Central Asia in value, 2017-2020

Imports coal to Central Asia

Imports in kind, K t

Coal import volumes to Central Asia showed significant volatility during this period. Imports reached their lowest point in 2017 and peaked in 2020, with a threefold difference between these years. In 2020, imports totaled 1 742 thousand tonnes, a 40.9% increase compared to 2019. The largest decline occurred in 2019 with a 7.2% drop, while the most substantial increase was recorded in 2018 with a 128.2% surge.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Central Asia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Russia was the primary source of coal imports to Central Asia by volume, accounting for 20.3% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Central Asia in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

The value of coal imports to Central Asia increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, imports were valued at 189.5 million US dollars, a 25.0% rise compared to 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, import value grew by 159.2%, equivalent to an average annual growth rate of 37.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Central Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

During the 2017-2020 period, Russia was the main market for coal imports to Central Asia by value, representing 47.5% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Central Asia in value, 2017-2020