Casein market in MERCOSUR

Earlier Report Observations

The casein market in MERCOSUR contracted from 14 353 t in 2018 to 12 621 t in 2020. This decline coincided with regulatory adjustments linked to the bloc's economic integration, as harmonization of legislation affected the circulation of goods and common trade policies for dairy products.

A strong recovery followed in 2021, with market volume jumping to 15 259 t. The surge was fueled by heightened consumer focus on health and sustainability in Latin America, where a majority sought natural ingredients, directly boosting demand for protein-rich casein.

After the 2021 peak, the market fell to 10 507 t by 2023. This downward phase was influenced by inflation and supply-demand tensions in the livestock sector, which raised costs and disrupted milk availability. Concurrently, global trends toward sustainable packaging and increased scrutiny of food processing affected formulations and labeling for casein-based products.

Production casein in MERCOSUR

In kind, 2017-2020, t

Top producers of casein, 2017-2020

World map of production of casein, 2017-2020

Casein production in MERCOSUR has declined for the third year in a row. In 2020, the region produced 10 527 tons of casein, which represents a 7.4% decrease compared to the previous year. Looking at the period from 2017 to 2020, production fell by 26.2%, translating to an average annual decline of 9.6%.

Annual dynamics of production in MERCOSUR in kind, 2017-2020, t

In value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Casein production in MERCOSUR has declined for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the output was valued at 59 851 thousand US dollars, showing a slight decrease of 1.6% from 2019. Over the four-year span from 2017 to 2020, production dropped by 36%, which corresponds to an average annual rate of decline of 13.8%.

Annual dynamics of production in MERCOSUR in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Exports casein from MERCOSUR

Exports in kind, t

The market exhibited volatility during the observed period. The lowest export volume was recorded in 2018 at 3 tons, while the highest was in 2017, resulting in a peak-to-trough ratio of 1 141 times. In 2020, casein exports from MERCOSUR totaled 29 tons, marking a 12.4% decrease from 2019. The largest decline occurred in 2018 at 99.9%, followed by the largest increase in 2019 at 845.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from MERCOSUR in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, the United States was the primary destination for casein exports in volume terms, accounting for 75.0% of total flows. Other markets contributed smaller shares, forming a long tail of trading partners.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from MERCOSUR in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

Market behavior was characterized by volatility during these years. The lowest export value was recorded in 2018 at 20 thousand US dollars, while the peak occurred in 2017, creating a swing of 1 299 times between these extremes. In 2020, MERCOSUR exported 164 thousand US dollars worth of casein, reflecting a moderate reduction of 7.0% compared to the previous year. The largest decline was in 2018 at 99.9%, and the largest increase was in 2019 at 778.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from MERCOSUR in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Throughout 2017 to 2020, the United States dominated the country structure of casein exports in value terms, representing 74.8% of total flows. Other destinations accounted for relatively minor shares.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from MERCOSUR in value, 2017-2020

Imports casein to MERCOSUR

Imports in kind, t

In 2020, MERCOSUR's casein imports reached 2 123 tons, showing a significant increase of 15.7% compared to the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, imports grew by 65.2%, with a compound annual growth rate of 18.2%. The largest decline was recorded in 2019 at 4.3%, while the largest increase occurred in 2018 at 49.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to MERCOSUR in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, New Zealand, France, and Ireland were the main sources of casein imports to MERCOSUR in volume terms. Together, they accounted for 65.7% of total imports, with New Zealand at 41.5%, France at 14.3%, and Ireland at 9.9%.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to MERCOSUR in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

Casein imports to MERCOSUR increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, the region imported approximately 18 021 thousand US dollars worth of casein, up by 22.5% from the year before. Between 2017 and 2020, imports rose by 42.2%, equating to an average annual growth rate of 12.4%. The minimum value was recorded in 2018 at 11 891 thousand US dollars, with the largest decline in 2018 at 6.2% and the largest increase in 2019 at 23.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to MERCOSUR in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

During 2017 to 2020, three key markets—New Zealand, France, and Ireland—collectively absorbed 63.4% of total casein imports to MERCOSUR in value terms.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to MERCOSUR in value, 2017-2020