Casein market in CIS

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2020, the CIS casein market expanded from 13.8 thousand tons to 16.2 thousand tons, peaking at 16.5 thousand tons in 2019. This growth was supported by strong import volumes and the initial development of domestic production. However, from 2020 onward, sanctions and import restrictions began to reduce import flows, while simultaneously encouraging import substitution, which helped maintain production levels.

Between 2021 and 2023, market volume contracted to 12.6 thousand tons, primarily due to a sharp drop in imports from 6.3 thousand tons to 1.6 thousand tons. Sanctions and trade barriers continued to limit supply from abroad, spurring investment in local manufacturing and the entry of new players. Despite the overall market decline, domestic production increased, and construction of new deep-processing milk plants started, laying the groundwork for future capacity.

In 2024, while full market size data is not available, imports showed a partial recovery to 2.4 thousand tons, and exports surged to 3.1 thousand tons. This reflects ongoing shifts in the market structure, with domestic production facing raw material shortages but benefiting from import-substitution programs and the expansion of processing facilities.

Production casein in CIS

In kind, 2017-2020, t

Top producers of casein, 2017-2020

World map of production of casein, 2017-2020

Casein production in the CIS has grown for the third year in a row. In 2020, the region produced 11 798 tonnes of casein, marking a moderate year-over-year increase of 5.0%. From 2017 to 2020, production rose by 13.3%, which translates to an average annual growth rate of 4.2%.

Annual dynamics of production in CIS in kind, 2017-2020, t

In value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Casein production value in the CIS has increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, the output was valued at 78 675 thousand US dollars, showing a solid year-over-year rise of 18.3%. Between 2017 and 2020, production value grew by 28.4%, averaging an 8.7% annualized rate. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 57 959 thousand US dollars, which also saw the largest decline of 5.4%.

Annual dynamics of production in CIS in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Exports casein from CIS

Exports in kind, t

Following a two-year decline, casein exports from the CIS rebounded. In 2020, exports reached 1 646 tonnes, representing a 30.0% increase compared to 2019. However, over the 2017-2020 period, exports fell by 35.3%, with a compound annual growth rate of -13.5%. The lowest point was in 2019 at 1 266 tonnes, which experienced the largest drop of 39.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from CIS in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Poland, the Netherlands, and the United States were the key partners for casein exports in kind. Poland accounted for 39.5% of exports, the Netherlands for 16.5%, and the United States for 12.0%. Together, these three countries made up 68.1% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from CIS in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

After a two-year decline, casein exports from the CIS saw a sharp increase. In 2020, export value stood at 10 978 thousand US dollars, reflecting a 46.5% year-over-year rise. Despite this, over the 2017-2020 period, exports decreased by 26.7%, with a compound annual growth rate of -9.8%. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 7 496 thousand US dollars, which also had the largest decline of 34.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from CIS in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, Poland, the Netherlands, and the United States led as the top buyers of casein from the CIS in value terms. Poland held a 39.1% share of exports, the Netherlands 16.9%, and the United States 11.9%. Combined, these countries represented 67.9% of total export value.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from CIS in value, 2017-2020

Imports casein to CIS

Imports in kind, t

After two years of growth, casein imports to the CIS declined. In 2020, imports amounted to 6 068 tonnes, showing a modest 6.7% decrease from 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports increased by 19.6%, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.2%. The peak was in 2019 at 6 506 tonnes, which also saw the largest increase of 25.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to CIS in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, France, Ireland, and the Netherlands were the leading sources for casein imports in kind to the CIS. France accounted for 65.9% of imports, Ireland for 12.3%, and the Netherlands for 7.7%. Together, these three countries comprised 85.9% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to CIS in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

Casein imports to the CIS have risen for the second year in a row. In 2020, imports were valued at 46 209 thousand US dollars, equivalent to a 16.5% year-over-year gain. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports grew by 32.7%, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.9%. The lowest value was in 2018 at 27 882 thousand US dollars, which experienced the largest decline of 20.0%, while the largest increase occurred in 2019 at 42.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to CIS in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Throughout 2017 to 2020, France and Ireland dominated casein imports to the CIS in value terms, jointly accounting for 82.1% of total flows. Other countries held significantly smaller shares.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to CIS in value, 2017-2020