Broken rice market in Eastern Africa

Earlier Report Observations

The broken rice market in Eastern Africa reached 782 thousand tons in 2018, driven by government policies that permitted duty-free imports to cover local deficits and supported a rise in the number of rice millers. Market volume then fell to 586 thousand tons in 2019, likely due to the continued enforcement of protective tariffs and the inflow of cheap Tanzanian rice that lowered import levels. A recovery to 837 thousand tons followed in 2020 as authorities maintained concessional import schemes to offset production challenges from pests and climate change.

A sharp increase in domestic production to 98 thousand tons in 2021, attributable to the earlier adoption of ratoon rice technology and ongoing state support, reduced import reliance and shrank the overall market to 738 thousand tons. Persistent deficits and government-approved concessional imports, alongside rising fuel and transport costs, pushed the market back up to 816 thousand tons in 2022. However, by 2023 the market contracted markedly to 557 thousand tons as imports declined and exports grew, coinciding with initial steps toward import substitution through new aromatic rice varieties and stricter anti-smuggling enforcement.

In 2024, import volumes dropped further to 416 thousand tons while exports fell to 9 thousand tons, reflecting ongoing market shifts. These movements aligned with President Museveni's opposition to banning cheap Tanzanian rice, the advancement of locally-bred aromatic varieties by NARO and JICA, the uptake of perennial rice growing technology, and intensified actions against smuggled rice to shield domestic producers.

Production broken rice in Eastern Africa

In kind, 2017-2020, t

Top producers of broken rice, 2017-2020

World map of production of broken rice, 2017-2020

Broken rice production in Eastern Africa declined after two years of growth. In 2020, the region produced 69 615 tonnes, marking a moderate year-on-year decrease of 6.8%. Looking at the period from 2017 to 2020, production actually increased by 22%, which translates to an average annual growth rate of 6.9%. The peak was reached in 2019 with 74 690 tonnes, while the largest annual increase occurred in 2018 at 22.1%.

Annual dynamics of production in Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, t

In value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Eastern Africa's broken rice production value fell for the second year in a row. In 2020, the output was valued at 31 250 thousand US dollars, representing a 9.0% drop compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, production value grew by 9%, averaging a 2.9% annual increase. The highest value was recorded in 2018 at 34 600 thousand US dollars, with the largest year-on-year rise also occurring that year at 20.7%.

Annual dynamics of production in Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Exports broken rice from Eastern Africa

Exports in kind, K t

In 2020, broken rice exports from Eastern Africa totaled 33.3 thousand tonnes, a significant 47.3% decline from 2019. From 2017 to 2020, exports decreased by 55.6%, with a compound annual growth rate of -23.7%. The only increase during this period was in 2019, when exports rose by 10.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Sudan were consistently the primary markets for broken rice exports in volume terms, together accounting for 59.3% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Eastern Africa's broken rice export value reached 14.9 million US dollars in 2020, showing a sharp 48.6% drop from the year before. Between 2017 and 2020, export value fell by 60.3%, equating to an average annual decline of 26.5%. The only increase occurred in 2019, with a modest rise of 2.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Throughout 2017-2020, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Sudan played central roles in broken rice exports by value, together representing 65.1% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020

Imports broken rice to Eastern Africa

Imports in kind, K t

In 2020, broken rice imports into Eastern Africa reached 800.9 thousand tonnes, up 39.4% from 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports increased by 13.5%, averaging a 4.3% annual growth rate. The lowest volume was recorded in 2019 at 574.5 thousand tonnes, which also saw the largest decline of 25.3% that year.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, India, Pakistan, and Thailand were the main sources of broken rice imports into Eastern Africa by volume. India accounted for 42.3% of imports, Pakistan for 29.5%, and Thailand for 12.6%, together making up 84.4% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

In 2020, broken rice imports into Eastern Africa were valued at 266.9 million US dollars, showing a robust 19.3% increase from the previous year. However, over the 2017-2020 period, import value decreased by 15.7%, with an average annual decline of 5.5%. The lowest value was in 2019 at 223.7 million US dollars, while the peak was in 2018 at 332.4 million US dollars. The largest drop occurred in 2019, with a 32.7% decline.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, India, Pakistan, and Thailand continued to lead as suppliers of broken rice to Eastern Africa by value. India held 31.7% of import value, Pakistan 29.6%, and Thailand 16.9%, jointly accounting for 78.2% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020