Bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares market in Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia)

Earlier Report Observations

The market for bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares in Eastern Europe expanded steadily from 2018 to 2020, with volume rising from 9.5 million tons to 10.5 million tons. This growth was driven by the entry of numerous private bakeries, which came to account for over 90% of bread production, and by increased industrial demand for malt used in baked goods and confectionery. Scientific research and development, including collaboration between the Research Institute of Baking Industry and major manufacturers, supported product innovation and quality improvements.

Market volume contracted in 2021 and 2022, falling to 9.0 million tons, as sharp increases in the cost of raw materials like milk, sugar, and cocoa beans, coupled with supply chain disruptions, pushed up production expenses. Major producers such as Mondelez announced significant price hikes, which likely dampened consumption. The industry also began preparatory adjustments for new labeling requirements scheduled for 2026.

The market rebounded strongly in 2023, reaching 10.5 million tons in volume and surging to 48.3 billion US dollars in value. This recovery coincided with ongoing inflationary pressures and continued raw material cost increases, which dramatically elevated the market's monetary value. Changes in distribution channels, exemplified by Alpen Gold's decision to halt supplies to large retail chains, reflected evolving market structures amid consolidation among major players.

Production bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares in Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia)

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares, 2017-2020

World map of production of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares, 2017-2020

Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) has seen its production of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares grow for the second year in a row. In 2020, the region produced 10 619 thousand tons of these products, marking a modest year-over-year increase of 3.5%. Looking at the period from 2017 to 2020, overall production declined by 6.1%, which translates to an average annual decrease of 2.1%. The lowest production level was recorded in 2018 at 9 890 thousand tons, when output fell by 12.6%—the sharpest drop in the period. In contrast, 2019 saw the largest increase, with production rising by 3.8%.

Annual dynamics of production in Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

The value of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares production in Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) has also increased for two consecutive years. In 2020, output was valued at 38 108 million US dollars, up 6.1% compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, production value decreased by 3%, with a compound annual growth rate of -1.0%. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 33 692 million US dollars, when it declined by 14.3%—the most significant drop. The largest increase occurred in 2019, with a 6.6% rise.

Annual dynamics of production in Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares from Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia)

Exports in kind, K t

In 2020, Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) exported 949 thousand tons of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares, representing a 2.1% increase year-over-year. From 2017 to 2020, exports grew by 3%, with an average annual growth rate of 1.0%. The peak export volume was reached in 2018 at 1 018 thousand tons, which saw the largest increase of 10.4%. The following year, 2019, experienced the biggest decline, with exports falling by 8.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Between 2017 and 2020, the export market for bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares from Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) was highly diversified, with no single dominant partner. Germany accounted for 12.4% of exports in kind, Kazakhstan for 6.7%, and the United Kingdom for 6.3%. Together, these three countries made up only 25.4% of total exports, while numerous smaller partners held modest individual shares.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

In 2020, the value of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares exports from Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) stood at 3 407 million US dollars, up 4.7% from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, export value increased by 6.3%, equating to an average annual growth rate of 2.1%. The highest value was recorded in 2018 at 3 468 million US dollars, which saw the largest increase of 8.2%. In 2019, exports declined by 6.1%, marking the biggest drop in the period.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

An analysis of export values from 2017 to 2020 reveals a broad distribution across many markets. Germany held a 14.8% share of exports in value terms, the United Kingdom 8.1%, and Kazakhstan 4.3%. Combined, these three countries accounted for just 27.2% of total export flows, with the remaining 72.8% spread among various other partners.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in value, 2017-2020

Imports bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares to Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia)

Imports in kind, K t

In 2020, Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) imported 797 thousand tons of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares, a significant 24.3% increase from 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, import volume rose by 33.4%, with an average annual growth rate of 10.1%. The largest decline occurred in 2019, when imports fell by 3.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, imports of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares into Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) were scattered across multiple countries, with no clear dominant supplier. Germany contributed 21.0% of imports in kind, Italy 4.9%, and Belgium 2.8%. Together, these three countries represented only 28.7% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

In 2020, the value of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares imports into Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) totaled 2 740 million US dollars, reflecting a 12.9% advance compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, import value increased by 30.9%, with an average annual growth rate of 9.4%. The largest decline was recorded in 2019 at 0.1%, while the biggest increase occurred in 2018, with a 16.1% rise.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

During 2017-2020, Germany, Italy, and Belgium played notable but not dominant roles as suppliers of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares to Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia). Germany accounted for 21.9% of imports in value terms, Italy for 8.1%, and Belgium for 3.4%. Their combined share reached only 33.4% of total import value.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in value, 2017-2020