Unmanufactured tobacco and refuse market in Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia), 2026

Earlier Report Observations

The market for unmanufactured tobacco in Eastern Europe saw a sustained contraction in volume from 401 thousand tons in 2018 to 293 thousand tons in 2023. This decline began amid the continued dominance of large international manufacturers and a gradual consumer shift towards alternative nicotine products like heated tobacco systems. Higher excise taxes during this period supported market value in monetary terms even as physical volumes fell.

A key regulatory change, the introduction of mandatory product labeling in 2020, actively reduced the share of illicit trade, contributing to a smaller legal market. The COVID-19 pandemic further disrupted logistics and accelerated the adoption of electronic nicotine delivery systems. Subsequent years saw a tightening of regulations, including expanded traceability systems and stricter sales rules, which continued to shape the legal market structure.

From 2022 onward, geopolitical factors and international sanctions began to significantly impact the trade flows of tobacco raw materials, affecting both imports and exports. Concurrently, the segment for alternative tobacco products kept expanding. By 2024, the full implementation of raw material traceability and ongoing market 'whitening' efforts were reported alongside a reduction in legal traditional tobacco production, even as some supply indicators showed temporary increases due to legalization.

Production unmanufactured tobacco and refuse in Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia)

In kind, 2017-2020, t

Top producers of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse, 2017-2020

World map of production of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse, 2017-2020

Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) has seen its production of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse decline for the third year in a row. In 2020, the region produced 34 576 tonnes, marking a significant 22.7% drop from 2019. Looking at the broader period from 2017 to 2020, production fell by 39%, with an average annual decline of 15.2%.

Annual dynamics of production in Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in kind, 2017-2020, t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) has experienced a third consecutive year of decline in the production value of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse. In 2020, the output was valued at 147.1 million US dollars, reflecting a substantial 18.7% year-over-year decrease. Over the 2017-2020 period, production value dropped by 34.5%, with an average annual decline of 13.1%.

Annual dynamics of production in Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports unmanufactured tobacco and refuse from Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia)

Exports in kind, K t

Exports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse from Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) have fallen for the third consecutive year. In 2020, exports amounted to 56.5 thousand tonnes, which is 16.0% lower than the previous year. From 2017 to 2020, exports decreased by 26.9%, with an average annual decline of 9.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in kind, 2017-2020, K t

An analysis of export volumes from 2017 to 2020 reveals a wide distribution across numerous markets. Germany accounted for 16.0% of exports, Italy for 13.4%, and Belgium for 9.2%, together making up 38.6% of total flows. The remaining 61.4% was spread among various other partners.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) has seen its export value of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse decline for the third year in a row. In 2020, exports reached 240 million US dollars, down 11.7% from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, export value fell by 21.4%, with an average annual decline of 7.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, export values were distributed across a broad range of partner countries. Germany held 11.7% of the total, Belgium 10.7%, and Italy 10.2%, collectively accounting for 32.5% of all flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in value, 2017-2020

Imports unmanufactured tobacco and refuse to Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia)

Imports in kind, K t

Imports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse into Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) have declined for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the region imported approximately 409.9 thousand tonnes, a 2.3% decrease compared to 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, imports fell by 2.9%, with an average annual decline of 1.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Over the 2017-2020 period, no single market dominated imports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse. Brazil accounted for 23.7% of import volumes, India for 8.6%, and Malawi for 8.3%, together making up 40.6% of the total. The rest was distributed among many smaller partners, each with modest shares.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Imports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse into Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) have declined for the second consecutive year. In 2020, imports totaled 1 943 million US dollars, a 2.2% drop from the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, import value decreased by 6.9%, with an average annual decline of 2.4%. The highest value was recorded in 2018 at 2 098 million US dollars. The largest decline occurred in 2019, with a 5.3% drop, while the largest increase was in 2018, at 0.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, the distribution of import values remained scattered across countries. Brazil accounted for 22.0% of the total, India for 7.8%, and Malawi for 7.6%, together making up 37.4% of all flows, with no single partner emerging as clearly dominant.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in value, 2017-2020