Bread market in Mozambique

Earlier Report Observations

The bread market volume in Mozambique expanded significantly from 2 249 t in 2018 to a peak of 6 799 t in 2022, driven primarily by rising urban consumption and several policy measures. Growth was particularly sharp in 2021 when the metical's appreciation against the US dollar lowered the cost of wheat imports, encouraging a near-doubling of inbound shipments. Government interventions, such as the compensation agreement with bakers signed in July 2019, helped stabilize retail prices and maintain consumer access during this period.

Domestic production fluctuated between 886 t and 1 157 t, reflecting cost pressures from higher flour prices and sporadic wood shortages for ovens. The elimination of the state bread subsidy starting in 2020 increased operational expenses for bakeries, but the concurrent compensation mechanism offset part of the impact. Imports became increasingly vital, surging from 1 245 t in 2018 to 5 914 t in 2022, as international wheat price variations and exchange-rate sensitivity shaped supply decisions.

The market volume contracted to 3 923 t in 2023, as the ongoing reliance on imported wheat exposed the sector to global price shocks and elevated fuel costs following the Russia‑Ukraine conflict. Although a new production and commercialization regulation was under discussion in 2022, no major policy shifts were implemented to cushion the downturn, leaving the market vulnerable to external cost pressures.

Production bread in Mozambique

In kind, 2017-2020, t

Top producers of bread, 2017-2020

World map of production of bread, 2017-2020

Bread production in Mozambique rebounded after two consecutive years of decline. In 2020, the country produced 990 tonnes of bread, marking a 6.4% increase compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, however, overall production fell by 21.2%, with a compound annual growth rate of -7.6%. The lowest production level was recorded in 2019 at 930 tonnes, while the sharpest decline occurred in 2018 with a 19.6% drop.

Annual dynamics of production in Mozambique in kind, 2017-2020, t

Exports bread from Mozambique

Exports in kind, t

The export market demonstrated significant volatility during the observed period. Exports reached their lowest point in 2020 at just 2 tonnes, representing a 77.5% decrease from the previous year. This contrasted sharply with the peak year of 2017, creating a 9.6-fold difference between the high and low points. The most substantial decline occurred in 2018 with a 78.3% drop, while 2019 saw the largest increase at 112.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Mozambique in kind, 2017-2020, t

During the 2017-2020 period, Japan and South Africa dominated Mozambique's bread exports in volume terms, together accounting for 85.5% of total shipments. The remaining 14.5% was distributed among various other destinations.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Mozambique in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

The export market in value terms showed considerable volatility throughout the observed period. Exports peaked in 2017 before plummeting to their lowest point in 2020, representing a 17-fold variation between these years. In 2020, Mozambique's bread exports generated just 7 thousand US dollars, reflecting a dramatic 90.6% decline from the previous year. The most significant increase occurred in 2019 with a 169.7% rise.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Mozambique in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Japan and South Africa collectively absorbed 88.5% of Mozambique's bread exports by value. The remaining 11.5% was distributed across smaller markets.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Mozambique in value, 2017-2020

Imports bread to Mozambique

Imports in kind, t

Mozambique's bread imports continued to grow for the second consecutive year. In 2020, imports reached 2 043 tonnes, representing a solid 12.7% increase from 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports grew by 23.9% with a compound annual growth rate of 7.4%. The lowest import volume was recorded in 2018 at 1 245 tonnes, which also saw the largest decline of 24.5%. The most substantial increase occurred in 2019 with a 45.7% rise.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Mozambique in kind, 2017-2020, t

Between 2017 and 2020, South Africa, Eswatini, and Portugal remained Mozambique's primary bread suppliers in volume terms. South Africa accounted for 57.5% of imports, Eswatini for 21.2%, and Portugal for 7.3%. Together, these three countries represented 86.0% of total bread imports by volume.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Mozambique in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

After two years of growth, Mozambique's bread imports by value declined in 2020. Imports reached 3 227 thousand US dollars, representing a 2.4% decrease compared to 2019. However, over the entire 2017-2020 period, imports still increased by 24.3% with a compound annual growth rate of 7.5%. The highest value was recorded in 2019 at 3 307 thousand US dollars, which also saw the largest increase of 24.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Mozambique in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

During the 2017-2020 period, South Africa, Eswatini, and Portugal accounted for the majority of Mozambique's bread imports by value. South Africa represented 60.8% of imports, Eswatini 17.0%, and Portugal 7.8%. Collectively, these three suppliers comprised 85.6% of total import value.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Mozambique in value, 2017-2020