Barley market in Northern Africa

Earlier Report Observations

The barley market in Northern Africa opened the period at 7.2 million tons in 2018, supported by favorable spring weather conditions in the Maghreb region which boosted local cereal development. The market then contracted to 6.0 million tons in 2019 before stabilizing around 6.2 million tons in 2020.

A global barley supply shortage emerged in 2021, driven by drought in major exporting countries like Canada and Russia, which constrained imports and encouraged an increase in local North African production, pushing the market volume up to 7.0 million tons. The following year, continued decline in world production and heightened competition from Russian exporters coincided with a sharp market contraction to 5.0 million tons. Recovery began in 2023, with the market reaching 6.0 million tons, aided by rising barley stocks in France and falling prices from mid-2023 which made imports more attractive.

Heading into 2024, trade flows were significantly reshaped by a steep drop in French barley exports to the region and declining exportable supplies from the Black Sea area. Concurrently, Morocco, as the regional leader, announced a new agricultural development plan aiming to expand cereal cultivation, including barley, to reduce import dependency.

Production barley in Northern Africa

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of barley, 2017-2020

World map of production of barley, 2017-2020

Barley production in Northern Africa has declined for the second year in a row. In 2020, the region produced 2,503 thousand tons of barley, which represents a significant drop of 35.8% compared to 2019. Looking at the period from 2017 to 2020, production fell by 38.5%, with an average annual decline rate of 15.0%. The highest production level was recorded in 2018 at 5,277 thousand tons, which also saw the largest year-on-year increase of 29.6%.

Annual dynamics of production in Northern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports barley from Northern Africa

Exports in kind, K t

The barley export market from Northern Africa experienced notable volatility during the observed period. Exports peaked in 2019 at 0.4 thousand tons, but then plummeted to zero in 2020, representing a dramatic decline of 89.9% from the previous year. The difference between the highest and lowest export volumes from 2018 to 2019 was substantial, with a peak-to-trough amplitude of 11.5 times. The largest percentage increase occurred in 2019, reaching 1,046.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Northern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Between 2017 and 2020, Switzerland and Oman were the primary destinations for Northern Africa's barley exports in kind, together accounting for 9.9% of the total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Northern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

The barley export market in value terms showed considerable volatility during these years. Exports reached their highest point in 2019 at 0.2 million US dollars, then fell sharply to zero in 2020, marking a reduction of 96.3% year-on-year. The gap between these two years was particularly wide, with a 27-fold difference between the peak in 2019 and the low in 2020. The largest percentage increase was recorded in 2019 at 1,013.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Northern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Switzerland consistently held the top position as the leading destination for Northern Africa's barley exports in value terms, accounting for 3.3% of the total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Northern Africa in value, 2017-2020

Imports barley to Northern Africa

Imports in kind, K t

The barley import market in Northern Africa displayed significant volatility during these years. Imports reached their lowest point in 2018 at 1,968 thousand tons, then climbed to their highest level in 2020 at 3,730 thousand tons, representing a substantial increase of 77.1% compared to the previous year. The difference between these peak and trough levels was notable, with a 1.9-fold variation. The largest decline occurred in 2018, dropping by 15.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Northern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

During the 2017-2020 period, France, Ukraine, and Russia were the main suppliers of barley to Northern Africa in kind. France accounted for 29.8% of imports, Ukraine for 25.4%, and Russia for 13.8%. Together, these three countries represented 68.9% of Northern Africa's total barley imports in kind.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Northern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

The barley import market in value terms showed signs of volatility throughout the observed period. Imports reached their lowest point in 2017, then rose to their highest level in 2020 at 753.6 million US dollars, marking a steep increase of 76.4% compared to the previous year. The variation between these years was significant, with a 1.8-fold difference. The largest decline was recorded in 2019, falling by 0.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Northern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, France, Ukraine, and Russia remained the leading sources of barley imports to Northern Africa in value terms. France accounted for 30.9% of imports, Ukraine for 22.9%, and Russia for 12.8%. Collectively, these three countries represented 66.6% of Northern Africa's total barley import flows in value terms.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Northern Africa in value, 2017-2020