Almonds market in Tajikistan

Earlier Report Observations

Between 2018 and 2021, almond production in Tajikistan remained stable at just over 3,100 tons annually, maintaining a steady market size of around 3.1–3.2 thousand tons. This period coincided with a global expansion in almond output and increasing worldwide demand, which solidified almonds as a profitable agricultural crop and likely supported domestic cultivation stability.

The market saw a significant shift in trade flows starting in 2022, when a surge in exports led to a slight dip in the total market volume. This was followed by a 4.4% market growth to 3,278 tons in 2023, driven primarily by a sharp increase in imports, which rose to 257 tons. The expansion of global almond-based product segments, like almond flour and milk, coupled with rising consumer interest in healthy foods, spurred international trade activity. Furthermore, increased almond imports into Russia during this period influenced regional supply patterns and likely facilitated greater import availability for Tajikistan.

By 2024, the import trend continued, reaching 279 tons, reflecting sustained external demand. This dynamic is supported by broader global factors, including record import growth in key markets and a lasting consumer preference shift towards almond-containing products. The crop's agronomic advantages, such as its hardiness and adaptability, also underpin its potential for cultivation in suitable regions.

Production almonds in Tajikistan

In kind, 2017-2020, t

Between 2017 and 2020, Tajikistan ranked as the 24th largest almond producer in the world, placing it among the global leaders in almond production during this period.

Top producers of almonds, 2017-2020

World map of production of almonds, 2017-2020

Almond production in Tajikistan declined for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the country produced 3 140 tonnes of almonds, which remained stable compared to 2019 levels.

Annual dynamics of production in Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020, t

In value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Tajikistan's almond production value also fell for the third year in a row. In 2020, almond output was valued at 1 469 thousand US dollars, marking a 10.8% decrease year-over-year. From 2017 to 2020, production value dropped by 44.5%, equivalent to an annualized decline of 17.8%.

Annual dynamics of production in Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Exports almonds from Tajikistan

Exports in kind, kg

Almond export volumes from Tajikistan showed significant fluctuations during this period. In 2020, exports totaled 13 772 kilograms, representing a sharp 12.4% decrease from the previous year. The highest export volume was recorded in 2018 at 55 171 kilograms, while the largest annual decline occurred in 2019 at 71.5%. The most substantial increase happened in 2018 with a 91.6% rise. Overall, export levels varied fourfold between the peak in 2018 and the low in 2020.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020, kg

From 2017 to 2020, Kazakhstan was the primary destination for Tajik almonds, accounting for 73.6% of total exports by volume. The remaining exports were distributed among a diverse group of other countries.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, $ US

Almond export values from Tajikistan experienced irregular changes, reflecting a volatile market environment. In 2020, exports amounted to 6 440 US dollars, showing a 21.6% decrease compared to 2019. The highest value was recorded in 2018 at 34 528 US dollars, while the largest annual decline occurred in 2019 at 76.2%. The most significant increase took place in 2018 with a 44.1% rise. Overall, export values showed a 5.4-fold difference between the peak in 2018 and the low in 2020.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020, $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, the United Arab Emirates and Kazakhstan dominated Tajik almond exports in value terms, together accounting for 83.2% of total export flows. Other destinations contributed smaller individual shares.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020

Imports almonds to Tajikistan

Imports in kind, kg

Almond import volumes into Tajikistan displayed notable fluctuations during this period. In 2020, imports reached approximately 1 660 kilograms, representing a 41.7% decrease from the previous year. The highest import volume was recorded in 2018 at 10 111 kilograms, while the largest annual decline occurred in 2019 at 71.8%. The most substantial increase happened in 2018 with a 102.5% rise. Overall, import levels changed by a factor of 6.1 between the peak in 2018 and the low in 2020.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020, kg

Throughout 2017-2020, China served as the main supplier of almonds to Tajikistan, accounting for 74.8% of total imports by volume. Other trading partners held relatively modest shares.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, $ US

Tajikistan's almond import value declined for the second consecutive year. In 2020, imports amounted to 4 554 US dollars, showing a steep 49.3% decrease year-over-year. The highest value was recorded in 2018 at 16 980 US dollars, while the most significant annual increase occurred in 2018 with a 10.2% rise. From 2017 to 2020, import value decreased by 70.4%, equivalent to a compound annual growth rate of -33.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020, $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, China and Uzbekistan were the dominant sources for almond imports into Tajikistan in value terms, jointly accounting for 80.7% of total import flows. The remaining share was distributed among other markets.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020