Almonds market in Northern Africa

Earlier Report Observations

The almond market volume in Northern Africa grew from 291 thousand tons in 2018 to 385 thousand tons in 2023. This expansion was initially driven by agricultural policies like Morocco's Plan Maroc Vert, which increased almond cultivation area to over 186 000 hectares and raised yields. By 2019, the Oriental region contributed 31% of national production, supported by processing units with a capacity of 3 600 tons per year.

The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to a drop in global almond prices, making imports more attractive. This boosted market volume, and in 2021 imports from California surged by 148%, significantly raising the market size to 371 thousand tons alongside a general rise in California's exports to the region.

Market growth slowed in 2022-2023, stabilizing around 384 thousand tons. The period saw pressure from illegal inflows of low-cost almonds from South America, while investments in processing infrastructure, such as a 118 million dirham project in the Oriental region and new crushing units in Taza province, were implemented to strengthen the sector.

Production almonds in Northern Africa

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of almonds, 2017-2020

World map of production of almonds, 2017-2020

Almond production in Northern Africa has increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, the region produced 292.0 K t of almonds, marking a 1.4% rise compared to 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production grew by 4.1%, which translates to an annualized rate of 1.3%. The lowest production level was recorded in 2018 at 280.0 K t. That year also saw the largest decline of 0.2%. In contrast, the most significant increase occurred in 2019, with a growth of 2.9%.

Annual dynamics of production in Northern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

The value of almond production in Northern Africa has risen for the third consecutive year. In 2020, output was valued at 1 628 M $ US, representing a 7.1% increase from the previous year. From 2017 to 2020, production value grew by 15.2%, equating to an annualized rate of 4.8%.

Annual dynamics of production in Northern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports almonds from Northern Africa

Exports in kind, t

Northern Africa exported 834 t of almonds in 2020, showing a moderate decline of 7.1% compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, exports decreased by 12.5%, which corresponds to an annualized rate of 4.3%. The lowest export volume was recorded in 2018 at 675 t. That year also experienced the largest decline of 29.1%. Conversely, the most significant increase occurred in 2019, with a rise of 32.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Northern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, France, Germany, and the Netherlands were among the largest buyers of almonds from Northern Africa, accounting for 18.5%, 18.5%, and 8.9% of exports in kind, respectively. However, even combined, they represented just 46.0% of total exports in kind, indicating a broadly diversified partner base.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Northern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

In 2020, Northern Africa's almond exports amounted to 4.7 M $ US, reflecting a slight drop of 1.9% compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, exports decreased by 3.1%, equating to an annualized rate of 1.1%. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 3.6 M $ US. That year also saw the largest decline of 25.7%. In contrast, the most significant increase occurred in 2019, with a rise of 32.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Northern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Throughout 2017–2020, Germany, France, and the Netherlands formed the core group of markets for almond exports in value terms, with shares of 32.2%, 18.4%, and 15.8%, respectively. Together, they accounted for 66.4% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Northern Africa in value, 2017-2020

Imports almonds to Northern Africa

Imports in kind, t

Almond imports into Northern Africa have increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, imports totaled 28 622 t, reflecting a significant rise of 61.7% compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports grew by 127.4%, which translates to an annualized rate of 31.5%. The lowest import volume was recorded in 2018 at 11 833 t. That year also experienced the largest decline of 6.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Northern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, t

Over the period 2017–2020, the United States remained the dominant partner for almond imports in kind to Northern Africa, holding a share of 75.3% of total flows, while other markets formed a long tail.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Northern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Foreign almond supplies to Northern Africa have increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the region imported a total of 167.6 M $ US of almonds, corresponding to a rise of 41.8% compared to the previous year. From 2017 to 2020, imports increased by 156.3%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Northern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Throughout 2017–2020, the partner structure for almond imports in value terms was centered on the United States, which accounted for 71.7% of total flows, while other markets formed a less significant perimeter.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Northern Africa in value, 2017-2020