Wheat and maize reach multi-year highs as global food inflation risks return

Cereals lead September increase

Global food commodity prices accelerated in September as tightening grain supplies, weather risks and disruption to major trade routes pushed wheat and maize to multi-year highs. Business A.M., citing the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, reported that the FAO Food Price Index averaged 136 points, up 2 points, or 1.5%, from its revised August level.

The benchmark was 6% higher than a year earlier, although it remained 15% below the record reached in March 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted food markets. Higher cereal, vegetable oil and sugar prices drove the monthly increase. Meat prices declined, while dairy prices were broadly unchanged.

Cereals recorded the strongest increase among the main commodity groups. The FAO Cereal Price Index rose 5% from August to 122.8 points and stood 17% above its September 2025 level. The increase raises costs for import-dependent economies because international grain prices can feed into domestic flour, bread, animal-feed and livestock-production expenses.

Wheat and maize supplies tighten

World wheat prices increased 6% during September, reaching their highest level since August 2023. According to the FAO assessment cited by Business A.M., logistical constraints in the Black Sea region encouraged importers to seek grain from alternative origins. Dry weather in parts of North America ahead of winter wheat planting added uncertainty over future production.

Maize prices climbed nearly 6% to their highest level in more than three years. The rise reflected lower-than-expected yields in the United States, reduced export availability from Brazil and further disruption to Black Sea trade. The combination narrows sourcing options for feed manufacturers and grain importers, while potentially raising input costs for poultry, pork and other livestock supply chains.

Other feed grains also strengthened. World sorghum prices increased 14% in September, partly amid expectations of greater Chinese purchases following trade discussions between China and the United States. Barley rose 3.9%, while rice gained 1.4% as weather concerns and seasonally tighter supplies supported Indica quotations.

Oils and sugar add pressure

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index advanced 0.9% to 198.6 points, leaving it 18% above its year-earlier level. International palm oil prices rose for a fourth consecutive month because of strong import demand and concerns that dry weather could affect Southeast Asian production. Sunflower oil declined for a third month on expectations of ample Black Sea supplies, although logistical disruption and limited capacity on alternative export routes contained the fall. Soy and rapeseed oil prices were broadly stable, with soy oil remaining well above year-earlier levels on strong biofuel demand.

Sugar prices supplied another source of inflationary pressure. The FAO Sugar Price Index increased 6% to 114 points, its third consecutive monthly gain and its highest level since April 2025. It was 15% above the September 2025 level. In contrast, the Meat Price Index fell 1.1% to 127.9 points as poultry and pig meat became cheaper, while bovine and ovine meat prices were broadly stable. The Dairy Price Index edged down 0.1% to 119.1 points.

The September data show how weather, export capacity, geopolitics and energy costs are interacting across food markets. Continued uncertainty in the Black Sea is affecting grain availability, while risks surrounding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are influencing expectations for fuel, fertiliser and freight costs. Importers and processors therefore face exposure not only to crop supply but also to the cost and reliability of moving commodities between producing and consuming markets.