Wheat and meslin market in China

Earlier Report Observations

China's wheat and meslin market volume grew steadily from 134.3 million tonnes in 2018 to 148.5 million tonnes in 2023. Domestic production increased from 131.4 million tonnes to 136.6 million tonnes over the same period, while imports surged from 2.9 million tonnes in 2018 to 11.9 million tonnes in 2023, with a significant jump occurring after 2020.

In 2023, market growth was primarily supported by a rise in imports, which reached 11.9 million tonnes. This increase in foreign supply coincided with record global grain output and weaker international wheat prices, making imports more attractive. Additionally, the release of wheat from central and local government reserves added to market availability. However, domestic production dipped slightly to 136.6 million tonnes as flour demand remained soft after the Spring Festival, leading to low milling plant utilization rates. The market also experienced quality differentiation for new wheat, with premium varieties commanding higher prices.

For 2024, trade data and reported factors indicated a continued focus on supply conditions. Domestic wheat production was noted to have increased with good quality, contributing to ample overall supply. However, weak flour consumption and low profitability in the milling industry kept domestic demand subdued. The government's policy of not activating market support programs for four consecutive years reinforced a market-driven pricing environment, while strategic stockpiling adjustments influenced farmer sales and market liquidity. Simultaneously, global production declines in key regions like Russia, Ukraine, and the EU contributed to higher international prices, adding a layer of complexity to the import dynamics.

Production wheat and meslin in China

In kind, 2017-2020, M t

Globally, China was the leading producer of wheat and meslin from 2017 to 2020.

Top producers of wheat and meslin, 2017-2020

World map of production of wheat and meslin, 2017-2020

China's wheat and meslin production increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, output reached 134.3 million tonnes, remaining virtually unchanged from the previous year. The lowest production level was recorded in 2018 at 131.4 million tonnes, which saw the largest decline of 2.1%. In contrast, 2019 experienced the largest increase of 1.6%.

Annual dynamics of production in China in kind, 2017-2020, M t

Exports wheat and meslin from China

Exports in kind, K t

In 2019, China's wheat and meslin exports totaled 9 000 tonnes, marking a 16.1% increase compared to 2018. Over the period from 2017 to 2019, exports decreased by 14.5%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -5.1%. The lowest export volume was recorded in 2018 at 7 000 tonnes, which saw the largest decline of 26.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from China in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, China's wheat and meslin exports were heavily dependent on Ethiopia, which accounted for 95.7% of total export volumes.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from China in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

In 2019, the value of China's wheat and meslin exports reached 4 million US dollars, showing a significant increase of 15.7% compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2019 period, export values decreased by 11.5%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -4.0%. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 3 million US dollars, which experienced the largest decline of 23.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from China in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Ethiopia dominated China's wheat and meslin exports in value terms, holding a 95.6% share of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from China in value, 2017-2020

Imports wheat and meslin to China

Imports in kind, K t

The market showed volatility during the observed period. Import volumes varied 2.8-fold, from a low of 2 878 000 tonnes in 2018 to a high of 8 151 000 tonnes in 2020. In 2020, deliveries to China increased by 154.3% compared to 2019. The largest decline occurred in 2018, with a drop of 33.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to China in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, the main sources for China's wheat and meslin imports by volume were Canada (31.7%), the United States (20.5%), and Australia (20.5%), together accounting for 72.7% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to China in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

The market exhibited an unstable trend throughout the timeframe. Import values varied 2.9-fold, from a low of 781 million US dollars in 2018 to a high of 2 262 million US dollars in 2020. In 2020, imports increased by 151.0% year-over-year. The largest decline was recorded in 2018, with a decrease of 24.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to China in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Canada (34.7%), the United States (20.8%), and Australia (19.5%) were consistently the main sources for China's wheat and meslin imports by value, together representing 75.0% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to China in value, 2017-2020