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Commodity and industrial market news — prices, production, trade and regulation — with expert analysis

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| Trade Policy & Macro

Canada-US trade talks revive dispute over dairy tariffs and market access

Donald Trump says Canada will lower agricultural tariffs for US farmers, while Ottawa maintains that its dairy protections will remain. Any concession involving dairy ingredients could affect Canadian processors and increase the use of US milk products in foods such as yogurt.

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Eleanor Hayes
Lead Trade Policy Analyst
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| Agriculture: Crops & Grains

Minas Gerais sugarcane crop seen at 82.5 million tonnes in 2026/27 as ethanol output jumps 27.5%

Conab's second survey of the 2026/27 sugarcane crop puts Minas Gerais at 82.5 million tonnes, 7% above the previous cycle, on a 5% yield gain and 2% more planted area. Sugar output in the state stays essentially flat at 5.56 million tonnes, while total ethanol rises 27.5% to 3.4 billion litres. Brazil's national crop is estimated at 705.2 million tonnes.

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Ana Lucia Fernandes
Senior Agricultural Commodities Analyst
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| Agriculture: Crops & Grains

South Africa secures 200,000-tonne soybean export deal with China

South Africa is preparing to ship approximately 200,000 tonnes of soybeans to China in November 2026. Zero-tariff access and shorter freight distances improve its competitiveness, while port capacity and domestic crushing demand remain constraints.

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Martin Keller
Senior Agricultural Commodities Analyst
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| Agriculture: Crops & Grains

North Sumatra Rice Supply Disruptions May Persist into Early 2027

North Sumatra could face rice shortages and higher prices through the first quarter of 2027 as El Niño threatens harvests and production. The September-October main harvest may provide temporary relief, but local supply is not expected to cover demand through February and the Eid al-Fitr period.

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Ana Lucia Fernandes
Senior Agricultural Commodities Analyst
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