Vietnam Says Fuel Supply Secure to Year-End as Draft Decree Sets 300,000 m³ Licence Test

Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade said domestic fuel supply will be sufficient through the end of 2026 and that retail prices will continue to be steered in line with world markets, while a draft decree now in preparation would tighten licensing rules for wholesale fuel traders and hand pricing decisions to companies. The comments came at the ministry’s regular third-quarter 2026 press briefing on the afternoon of October 7, reported by Tuoi Tre.

Nguyen Thuy Hien, Deputy Director of the Domestic Market Management and Development Agency at the ministry, answered questions on the draft decree governing petroleum trading, on supply and demand, and on the price outlook for the rest of the year.

Licences tied to a 300,000 m³ minimum

Under the draft, a key fuel trader would have to supply a minimum of 300,000 cubic metres a year. Failing to meet that volume in two consecutive years would cost the company its licence. Tuoi Tre asked the ministry why the requirement is needed and how the annual allocation of volumes would work.

Hien said the threshold follows the government’s broader instruction to restructure the fuel market and raise the capability of the companies operating in it. Annual minimum allocations are currently set on the basis of volumes that companies register themselves, which she said does not clearly reflect actual capacity; some key traders ended up with very low allocated totals.

More than half of existing key traders already reach the 300,000 m³ level, according to Hien. She added that the remainder are not automatically excluded:

• the draft sets a two-year implementation path;
• companies that keep investing in capacity can meet the requirement and stay in the market;
• the ministry therefore cannot yet say how many traders would drop out.

Pricing moves to companies, backed by a national database

A central element of the draft decree is control over how fuel prices are formed once companies are given the right to set them. The stated objective is to keep prices close to a market mechanism that remains under state management.

Responding to concerns that self-pricing will make prices more volatile, Hien said the state will retain control instruments: traders must declare their price calculations and explain movements, with declarations linked to a price database applied nationwide. Software will flag unusual elements in a trader’s pricing to the provincial Department of Industry and Trade and to the ministry, identifying companies that file prices but cannot justify increases, so that market surveillance can inspect them.

“The state does not manage prices weekly,” Hien said. Companies will decide price changes on the basis of actual business costs and declare those prices to the state, and any change must be grounded in the cost factors that form the price.

Two tiers and more than 10,500 distributors

Asked whether key traders would dominate selling prices and put retailers at a disadvantage, Hien said the draft allows both key traders and retailers to set prices according to the market, creating price competition between them. She noted that the fuel market will be left with only two tiers — key traders and distributors — and that more than 10,500 distributors will be able to set their own prices.

“The fuel market will be fiercely and strongly competitive, so there is no concern about key traders dominating prices,” she said, adding that key traders will themselves face competitive pressure from distributors. On the risk of collusion to push prices up, she said the ministry has added provisions to deal with anti-competitive agreements under the Competition Law.

Supply secured for the fourth quarter

On securing supply while the situation in the Middle East remains unsettled, Hien said conditions have changed continuously this year, creating difficulties for regulators as well. The ministry has drawn up contingency plans, supply remains well assured, companies are tracking their allocated volumes and inventories are very high.

On prices, the ministry will manage closely in line with world prices and use its measures flexibly, including the stabilisation fund where necessary. The government has extended the fuel tax reduction to support households and businesses. Hien said the total supply balance from now to the end of the year is sufficient for production and business activity. The ministry has also instructed key traders and fuel producers to secure supply for the distribution system in the fourth quarter of 2026.