Moldova Becomes the Largest Market for Ukrainian Dairy Exports

Moldova overtakes Poland and Germany

Moldova became the largest market for Ukrainian dairy exports in the first seven months of 2026, surpassing Poland and Germany. According to Forbes Romania, citing data from the Association of Milk Producers of Ukraine, Ukrainian suppliers sold dairy products worth $50.6 million to Moldova between January and July.

Poland ranked second with purchases of $28.8 million, followed by Germany with $25.5 million. Other leading destinations were Bulgaria at $10.8 million, Kazakhstan at $10.2 million, Israel at $10 million, the United States at $7.2 million, Azerbaijan at $6.9 million, Lithuania at $6.6 million and Georgia at $6.4 million.

Moldova therefore accounted for about 23% of Ukraine’s reported dairy export revenue during the period. Its purchases were close to the combined value shipped to Poland and Germany, underlining the country’s growing importance as a neighboring outlet for Ukrainian processors.

Export revenue falls faster than volume

Ukraine exported 76,050 tonnes of dairy products in January–July, down 9% from the same period of 2025. Export revenue fell more sharply, declining 18% to $218.27 million, according to the Ukrainian industry association’s data reported by Forbes Romania. The difference between the two rates indicates that the average value generated per exported tonne also decreased.

Ice cream was the largest product category, representing 28% of total exports. Concentrated milk and cream accounted for 24%, butter for 14%, cheese for 13% and casein for 9%. Together, these five categories represented 88% of Ukrainian dairy shipments, with consumer products and dairy ingredients both contributing to the trade mix.

The prominence of ice cream and concentrated dairy products means Moldova’s position matters across several processing segments rather than only in raw milk trade. For exporters, geographic proximity can support shorter delivery routes, but the figures also show that access to one fast-growing destination has not prevented an overall contraction in export earnings.

Imports intensify pressure on Ukrainian cheese makers

At the same time, Ukraine increased its own dairy imports to 47,960 tonnes worth $219.27 million in the first seven months of 2026. Import volume was 36% higher than in the comparable period of 2025, and the value of imports slightly exceeded the country’s dairy export revenue. Cheese dominated inbound shipments, accounting for 59% of total import volume.

Poland was identified as one of the main suppliers. Ukrainian producers also allege that illegal deliveries account for approximately 30% of the country’s cheese market. Industry associations estimate the resulting annual loss to the state budget at no less than 730 million hryvnias, although the source did not provide an independent assessment of that claim.

Cheap European imports have already prompted some Ukrainian producers to reduce output, Forbes Romania reported. The share of imported products in Ukraine’s domestic market rose from 38% to 45% during 2025 and exceeded 50% in spring 2026. Domestic cheese production declined by 6%, while imports of matured cheese increased by 13%.

The regional picture is therefore divided. Moldova is providing Ukrainian dairy companies with their largest foreign sales market, while Ukraine’s home market is becoming more dependent on imported dairy, particularly cheese. Producers must manage weaker export revenue and stronger foreign competition at the same time, with product mix, pricing and enforcement against undeclared shipments likely to shape their position.