Indian wheat prices rise after government lifts four-year export ban
Indian wholesale wheat prices rose after the government removed a nearly four-year export ban on wheat and milled products. High domestic prices may limit large shipments, while strong state stocks provide a buffer against supply risks.
Wholesale prices respond to export reopening
Wheat prices have risen in Indian agricultural markets since the government lifted a nearly four-year ban on exports of wheat and processed products on 24 August. Jagran reported increases of more than ₹150 per quintal in some wholesale markets, although the change has not yet passed fully into retail prices.
The export decision also covers flour, refined wheat flour and semolina. In Uttar Pradesh, wheat in the Lucknow market rose from ₹2,466 per quintal on 17 August to ₹2,640. In Hardoi, the Dara variety advanced from ₹2,408 to ₹2,553 per quintal. These movements increase procurement costs for flour millers even before any substantial export volumes are recorded.
Data from the Department of Consumer Affairs’ price monitoring division put the national average retail wheat price at ₹31.58 per kilogram. Recorded prices ranged from a minimum of ₹22 to a maximum of ₹55 per kilogram, indicating substantial differences among local markets and supply chains.
Stocks and production offer a buffer
Official figures present a relatively comfortable supply picture. The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare estimates record wheat production of 120.6 million tonnes in 2025-26, above 117.9 million tonnes in the previous year. Food Corporation of India data showed government wheat stocks of 50.5 million tonnes on 1 August, the highest level in five years.
Industry assessments are less uniform. An unnamed flour mill operator cited by Jagran said the latest crop was 7-8% smaller than the previous season and noted that the government had procured 36 million tonnes. The operator also pointed to rising maize prices and warned that exports could tighten supply if El Niño affects the next rabi crop.
International agencies expect El Niño conditions to persist until March 2027, according to Jagran. A weaker crop would make the level and timing of exports more important for domestic processors and consumers. For now, however, public inventories give the government room to manage availability if market prices continue to rise.
Price gap may restrict shipments
India’s immediate export opportunities appear concentrated in nearby markets such as Nepal, Bhutan and northern Bangladesh. Demand from Bangladesh may be limited because the country already has an agreement to purchase US wheat. Geography supports Indian deliveries to these destinations, but price competitiveness remains a larger obstacle.
New Delhi exporter Rajesh Jain Paharia told BusinessLine that Indian wheat was at least $30 per tonne more expensive on a free-on-board basis than supplies from other origins. Indian wheat at Kandla port was priced at about $325 per tonne, compared with $295 or less for competing wheat. That spread makes large-scale exports unlikely unless international prices rise further or Indian prices weaken.
Global conditions could still narrow the gap. Chicago Board of Trade wheat reached $7.54 per bushel, equivalent to about $277 per tonne, near its highest level since February 2023. Jagran linked the rally to concern about Russian exports amid intensifying attacks in the Black Sea region and to weather-related production risks. India has reopened a potential supply channel into the world market, but domestic prices, crop performance and the export premium will determine whether that channel produces significant trade flows.
