Wheat and meslin market in India

Earlier Report Observations

Between 2018 and 2020, India's wheat and meslin market volume expanded steadily, reaching 106.9 million tonnes. This growth was primarily driven by the government's consistent increases in the Minimum Support Price, which incentivized sowing and production. Improved seed varieties and irrigation facilities further bolstered output. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic altered food habits, increasing demand for wheat-based products as consumption shifted towards home cooking during supply chain disruptions.

Market volume contracted to 103.5 million tonnes in 2021 and further to 100.9 million tonnes in 2022. A key driver was a massive surge in wheat exports, which rose from 0.9 million tonnes in 2020 to 6.1 million tonnes in 2021 and 6.8 million tonnes in 2022, significantly reducing domestic availability. In 2022, the government imposed export restrictions from May onward to prioritize local consumption, but high outflows earlier in the year and persistent challenges like small land holdings and high input costs limited supply growth.

The market rebounded strongly to 110.5 million tonnes in 2023. This recovery was fueled by a sharp drop in exports to 0.2 million tonnes following the prior year's restrictions, freeing up supply for the domestic market. Production also increased, supported by favorable weather. Concurrently, the entry of new players in the packaged flour segment and a sustained consumer shift towards branded, convenient products continued to shape demand.

Production wheat and meslin in India

In kind, 2017-2020, M t

India was one of the world's top producers of wheat and meslin from 2017 to 2020, ranking second globally by production volume during this period.

Top producers of wheat and meslin, 2017-2020

World map of production of wheat and meslin, 2017-2020

India's wheat and meslin production grew for the third year in a row. In 2020, the country produced 107.9 million tonnes, up 4.1% from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, production increased by 9.5%, with an average annual growth rate of 3.1%.

Annual dynamics of production in India in kind, 2017-2020, M t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

After rising for two years, wheat and meslin production in India saw a decline. In 2020, the output was valued at 28 231 million US dollars, down 4.1% compared to 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, production increased by 4.8%, translating to an annualized rate of 1.6%. The highest value was recorded in 2019 at 29 436 million US dollars, with the largest increase that year of 6.6%.

Annual dynamics of production in India in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports wheat and meslin from India

Exports in kind, K t

The market showed an unstable trend over the period. Export volumes reached their lowest point in 2018 at 168 thousand tonnes, then peaked in 2020 at 929 thousand tonnes, a 5.5-fold difference. In 2020, India's exports surged by 388.6% compared to the previous year. The largest decline occurred in 2018, dropping by 16.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from India in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Nepal, Bangladesh, and the United Arab Emirates consistently led India's export structure in kind. Nepal accounted for 48.3% of exports, Bangladesh for 27.2%, and the UAE for 7.1%, together making up 82.6% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from India in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Market performance experienced noticeable fluctuations during this time. The lowest point was in 2018 at 47 million US dollars, while the peak came in 2020 at 243 million US dollars, a 5.2-fold difference. In 2020, exports jumped by 350.0% year-on-year. The largest decline was in 2018, falling by 15.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from India in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan dominated India's export structure in value terms. Nepal represented 46.8% of exports, Bangladesh 25.2%, and Afghanistan 8.9%, collectively accounting for 80.9% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from India in value, 2017-2020

Imports wheat and meslin to India

Imports in kind, K t

India's cross-border shipments of wheat and meslin fell for the third consecutive year. In 2020, imports dropped to 0.2 thousand tonnes, an 85.6% decrease year-on-year. From 2017 to 2020, imports declined by 100%, with an annualized rate of 96.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to India in kind, 2017-2020, K t

During 2017-2020, Ukraine and Australia were the two leading markets for India's imports in kind, together making up 83.9% of the total. The remaining volume was spread across a diverse range of other countries.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to India in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

India's wheat and meslin import volume decreased for the third year in a row. In 2020, imports totaled 0.1 million US dollars, down 88.7% from the prior year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports fell by 100%, equating to an annualized rate of 96.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to India in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Ukraine and Australia together accounted for 84.5% of India's total imports in value terms. Other countries contributed to a varied but smaller share of the imports.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to India in value, 2017-2020