Global wine trade falls 8.3% by volume in H1 2026 as prices carry revenue

International trade in wine and must closed the first half of 2026 with a decline of 8.3% in volume and 5.2% in value against the same period of 2025, according to an analysis published by Vinetur. Average prices rose 3.3%, softening part of the revenue drop but failing to prevent a sharper contraction in the quantities sold. The market is now losing volume faster than it did in the second half of last year, even as the deterioration in revenue eased.

The assessment was presented on Wednesday, 30 September, by Rafael del Rey of the consultancy Del Rey AWM to the European Union's Wine Market Observatory, using S&P data. It separates the relatively stronger performance of sparkling wine from the difficulties of bulk and the retreat of still wines, where falling reds and roses weigh heavily on European bottled exports.

Excluding must, world wine exports in the half year totalled 15,845.4 million euros and 43.1 million hectolitres, equivalent to 4,310 million litres. On that basis the decline was 5.1% in value and 8% in volume. Del Rey notes that the category breakdown does not match the general wine-and-must series exactly, so the two readings must be kept separate.

Prices stabilise near 3.60-3.70 euros per litre

Comparing the last three half-year periods shows diverging paths for value and volume. In revenue, the year-on-year fall in world wine and must trade was 2.2% in the first half of 2025, widened to 9.7% in the second and moderated to 5.2% between January and June 2026. In quantities the opposite happened: the decline was 3.9% in the first half of 2025, 5.1% in the second and 8.3% in the first six months of 2026. Each rate compares a half year with the same period of the previous year, not with the immediately preceding half.

The gap is explained by average prices. After rising 1.8% in the first half of 2025 and falling 4.8% in the second, they increased 3.3% at the start of 2026. Del Rey places international prices in a relatively stable band of around 3.60 to 3.70 euros per litre following the exceptional increases that came after the pandemic. He links much of the second-half 2025 price decline to the reaction to higher United States tariffs, particularly in France, and sees a stabilising trend for 2026. The better average revenue per litre has not translated into a recovery in trade, because it coexists with a steeper fall in shipments.

Bulk takes the hardest hit, sparkling the only category up in value

By category, the sharpest adjustment came in bulk. World exports reached 1,113.4 million euros, down 12.5%, and 14 million hectolitres, down 14.5%. Volume falling faster than value indicates the average price rose, but not enough to offset the lost quantities. Del Rey links this to a combination of shorter harvests in many producing countries, higher prices and weakened demand. The retreat hit intra-European Union trade, Canadian shipments to the United States, and sales from producers far from their main markets, such as Chile and New Zealand.

• Bottled still wine remained the largest earner at 10,640.9 million euros, down 6.2% in value and 5.3% in volume to 22.5 million hectolitres. Here revenue fell more than quantities, so no average-price gain cushioned the decline.
• Sparkling posted the least negative balance, with external sales of 3,756.7 million euros, up 0.3%, while volume fell 1.2% to 4.8 million hectolitres. It was the only one of the four large categories to grow revenue.
• Bag-in-box, recorded as BiB in the statistics, exported 334.5 million euros and 1.7 million hectolitres, down 3.1% in value and 2.5% in volume.

The long series reinforces that the issue extends beyond a single half year. Since 2017, in the statistics covering wine and must, the value of world trade rose 5.1%, about 1,600 million euros, despite losing 18.9 million hectolitres, as the average price climbed 26.8%. Excluding must, wine gained 4.9% in value, also about 1,600 million euros, with 18.7 million hectolitres less. Over that period sparkling gained 40.6% in value and 22.9% in volume, the only category to add exported quantities. Bottled still wine lost 20.4% of volume, bulk 21% and bag-in-box 18.8%; in value bottled still fell 2.5%, bulk 12.8%, while bag-in-box grew 20.7%.

Spain leads the volume losses, United States imports down 25.2%

Among the main suppliers, almost all sold less. Of the 17 exporters analysed, only South Africa avoided a fall in value in the first half. Among the three large European countries, France cut sales 2.2%, Italy 6.2% and Spain 8.9%. In volume the spread was wider: Spain fell 16.8%, Italy 4% and France 1.5%. Del Rey attributes much of the Spanish decline to weaker bulk shipments, and reads France as having lowered prices to better defend its quantities, a strategy that gained share against Italy and Spain. Outside that group, the United States cut exports 18.1% in value, Chile 15.3% and New Zealand 11.8%; in volume the United States fell 11.8%. Canada, Hungary and Moldova also recorded significant volume declines, though the analysis assigns no specific rate to each. South Africa, Argentina and Belgium were the positive exceptions in volume.

Weakness also reached most major buyers. The United States remained first by value at about 2,430 million euros, but its imports fell 25.2%; in volume it bought 5.37 million hectolitres, down 16.8%. Del Rey sees the deterioration moderating against the previous period while remaining one of the market's sharpest corrections. The United Kingdom was second by value at about 1,870 million euros, down 5.2%, and second by volume at 5.41 million hectolitres, down 2%. Germany led purchases by quantity with 6.04 million hectolitres despite a 7.6% drop, and was third in value at about 1,230 million euros, down 6.2%. Canada imported about 770 million euros, down 8%, and 1.75 million hectolitres, down 6.8%. The Netherlands recorded about 670 million euros, down 5.1%, and 1.69 million hectolitres, also down 6.8%. Japan bought about 660 million euros, down 7%, while its volume barely retreated 0.6% to 1.11 million hectolitres.