Wheat and meslin market in CIS

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2020, the wheat and meslin market operated without specific export quotas or floating duties, allowing relatively free trade. This period saw a steady expansion of the domestic market, reaching 78.2 million tons in 2020, supported by growth in sown areas and harvest volumes noted in 2019. In 2020, state authorities began preparing for stricter controls, laying the groundwork for future export regulations.

The regulatory landscape shifted significantly in 2021 with the introduction of a floating export duty on wheat and meslin, active from June, designed to stabilize domestic prices. This was followed in 2022 by the implementation of annual export quotas and a temporary ban on grain exports to EAEU countries due to international sanctions and rising logistical costs. These measures, coinciding with a production surge to 134.0 million tons, directed more grain to the domestic market, pushing its volume to a peak of 109.1 million tons in 2022.

In 2023, export restrictions were extended, including a ban on exports of durum wheat. However, production declined to 118.6 million tons, and despite ongoing quotas and sanctions affecting shipping costs, the domestic market size contracted to 87.7 million tons.

Production wheat and meslin in CIS

In kind, 2017-2020, M t

Top producers of wheat and meslin, 2017-2020

World map of production of wheat and meslin, 2017-2020

Wheat and meslin production in the CIS has increased for the second consecutive year. In 2019, production reached its lowest point at 98.0 million tonnes, with a decline of 14.1%. By 2020, output rose significantly to 113.2 million tonnes, marking a strong 14.2% increase compared to the previous year.

Annual dynamics of production in CIS in kind, 2017-2020, M t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Wheat and meslin production in the CIS has grown for the second year in a row. In 2018, the value hit a low of 19 237 million US dollars, dropping by 7.1%. From 2017 to 2020, overall production increased by 25.6%, with an average annual growth rate of 7.9%. In 2020, the output was valued at 25 990 million US dollars, showing a dramatic 26.1% rise versus 2019.

Annual dynamics of production in CIS in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports wheat and meslin from CIS

Exports in kind, K t

In 2019, CIS exports of wheat and meslin fell to a minimum of 36 181 thousand tonnes, with the largest decline of 25.4%. The peak was in 2018 at 48 514 thousand tonnes, which saw the biggest increase of 33.0%. By 2020, exports recovered to 39 648 thousand tonnes, indicating a 9.6% year-on-year uptick. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports grew by 8.7%, equating to an annualized rate of 2.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from CIS in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, wheat and meslin exports from the CIS were distributed across a wide range of partner countries. Egypt accounted for 18.8% of exports in kind, Turkey for 14.2%, and Bangladesh for 4.9%. Together, these three countries made up just 37.9% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from CIS in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

In 2019, CIS exports of wheat and meslin in value terms experienced the largest decline of 20.9%. The maximum value was recorded in 2018 at 9 519 million US dollars, with the biggest increase of 43.9%. By 2020, exported volumes amounted to 9 107 million US dollars, reflecting a 21.0% gain compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports increased by 37.7%, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from CIS in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

The market base for CIS wheat and meslin exports in value terms from 2017 to 2020 was broad. Egypt accounted for 19.5% of exports in value terms, Turkey for 14.3%, and Bangladesh for 5.0%. Combined, these three countries represented just 38.8% of total flows, while the remaining 61.2% was shared among numerous other nations.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from CIS in value, 2017-2020

Imports wheat and meslin to CIS

Imports in kind, K t

Cross-border shipments of wheat and meslin to the CIS have increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, imports reached 4 690 thousand tonnes, up by 7.9% versus the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports surged by 86.9%, equating to an annualized growth rate of 23.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to CIS in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Ukraine was the core market for wheat and meslin imports into the CIS, accounting for 1.5% of total import flows in kind.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to CIS in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Cross-border shipments of wheat and meslin to the CIS have risen for the third year in a row. In 2020, imports amounted to a value that advanced by 15.1% compared to 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports increased by 102.1%, equating to an annualized rate of 26.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to CIS in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Ukraine was the principal market for wheat and meslin imports into the CIS, absorbing 1.2% of total imports in value terms.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to CIS in value, 2017-2020