Wheat and meslin flour and cereals market in Uganda

Earlier Report Observations

The market for wheat and meslin flour and cereals in Uganda showed notable volatility from 2018 to 2023. Growth in 2019 was bolstered by a sharp rise in maize production to 5 million metric tons, despite locust invasions and flooding. However, the market contracted in 2020 as climate-related challenges, including droughts and pests, reduced cereal yields, while global wheat supply disruptions encouraged a shift toward local substitutes like cassava flour.

Recovery emerged in 2021 following government projects aimed at improving cereal production for maize, millet, sorghum, rice, and wheat. The market faced renewed pressure in 2022 when soaring fertilizer prices, driven by global supply constraints, led farmers to reduce inputs, curtailing output. During this period, Uganda Breweries Limited announced significant investments to source 100% of its agricultural raw materials locally by 2030, providing long-term support for domestic cereal production.

A strong rebound occurred in 2023, with market volume surging by over 30% to 522 500 tonnes. This growth was propelled by the promotion of structured grain markets with enhanced quality standards, which improved Uganda's regional supply position. Stricter export regulations in neighboring countries like Kenya, coupled with expanded farmer training on quality and market systems, helped retain more grain domestically, boosting local market volume.

Production wheat and meslin flour and cereals in Uganda

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2017-2020

World map of production of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2017-2020

Uganda produced 459.5 thousand tons of wheat and meslin flour and cereals in 2020, marking a gradual 10.0% decrease from the previous year. Looking at the broader period from 2017 to 2020, production fell by 6%, which translates to an annualized decline of 2.1%. The peak production occurred in 2019 at 510.6 thousand tons, with the largest year-on-year increase of 9.7% also recorded that year.

Annual dynamics of production in Uganda in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

In 2020, the output value of wheat and meslin flour and cereals in Uganda was 234.9 million US dollars, down 11.8% from 2019. The lowest value in the period was 228.5 million US dollars in 2018, while the highest was 266.3 million US dollars in 2019. The most significant increase happened in 2019, with a 16.5% rise.

Annual dynamics of production in Uganda in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports wheat and meslin flour and cereals from Uganda

Exports in kind, t

Uganda's exports of wheat and meslin flour and cereals have grown for the third year in a row. In 2020, exports reached 57 258 tons, showing a moderate 6.5% increase compared to 2019. From 2017 to 2020, exports surged by 74.3%, averaging an annual growth rate of 20.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Uganda in kind, 2017-2020, t

Between 2017 and 2020, South Sudan was the leading destination for Uganda's exports in kind, accounting for 71.4% of total flows, while the rest was spread across various other markets.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Uganda in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

The value of wheat and meslin flour and cereals exports from Uganda has risen for the third consecutive year. In 2020, export value amounted to 29 267 thousand US dollars, up 4.4% year-over-year. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports increased by 84.9%, with an annualized growth rate of 22.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Uganda in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, South Sudan dominated Uganda's exports in value terms, representing 72.1% of the total, with the remaining flows distributed among a diverse group of smaller countries.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Uganda in value, 2017-2020

Imports wheat and meslin flour and cereals to Uganda

Imports in kind, t

In 2020, Uganda imported 11 141 tons of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, a slight 0.7% decrease from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports grew by 2.4%, averaging an annual increase of 0.8%. The lowest import volume was 8 485 tons in 2018, while the highest was 11 224 tons in 2019. The largest decline occurred in 2018 at 22.0%, and the largest increase was in 2019 at 32.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Uganda in kind, 2017-2020, t

During 2017-2020, nearly all imports in kind of wheat and meslin flour and cereals to Uganda came from Turkey, which held a 92.2% share of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Uganda in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

In 2020, Uganda's imports of wheat and meslin flour and cereals were valued at 4 081 thousand US dollars, reflecting a solid 15.1% decline from the previous year. From 2017 to 2020, imports increased by 4.7%, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.5%. The minimum value was 3 028 thousand US dollars in 2018, and the maximum was 4 808 thousand US dollars in 2019. The largest drop was 22.3% in 2018, while the biggest rise was 58.8% in 2019.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Uganda in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, Uganda's import pattern in value terms showed a strong reliance on Turkey, which accounted for 90.6% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Uganda in value, 2017-2020