Wheat and meslin flour and cereals market in Tunisia

Earlier Report Observations

The Tunisian market for wheat and meslin flour expanded from 1 899 thousand tons in 2018 to over 2 million tons in 2021, supported by state management through the Cereals Office, which sets price policies and import quotas. Despite supply chain disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the market continued to grow, reaching 2 031 thousand tons in 2021 as ample national wheat stocks and maintained import quotas ensured stable supply for millers.

From 2022, the market volume declined, falling to 1 944 thousand tons in 2023. This contraction was primarily due to a sharp 70% increase in global soft wheat prices driven by the Russia-Ukraine war, which raised import costs significantly. Concurrently, adjustments to the bread subsidy system, which restricted subsidized flour access for modern bakeries from August 2022, further impacted market conditions.

Production wheat and meslin flour and cereals in Tunisia

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2017-2020

World map of production of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2017-2020

Tunisia's production of wheat, meslin flour, and cereals increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, the country produced 1 980 K t, remaining virtually unchanged from the previous year. The lowest production volume was recorded in 2018 at 1 940 K t, which also saw the largest decline of 1.2%. The largest increase occurred in 2019, with a 1.5% rise.

Annual dynamics of production in Tunisia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

In 2020, the output of wheat, meslin flour, and cereals in Tunisia was valued at 822.4 M $ US, reflecting a robust gain of 14.1% from the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, production increased by 6.1%, equating to an annualized growth rate of 2.0%. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 720.8 M $ US, which also experienced the largest decline of 7.3%.

Annual dynamics of production in Tunisia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports wheat and meslin flour and cereals from Tunisia

Exports in kind, t

Exports of wheat, meslin flour, and cereals from Tunisia declined for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the country exported 27 816 t, which is 5.5% less than in 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, exports decreased by 32.8%, with a compound annual growth rate of -12.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Tunisia in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Tunisia supplied wheat, meslin flour, and cereals to many different markets. Even the largest destinations—Libya, Mali, and Benin—together represented only 49.5% of total exports in volume terms.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Tunisia in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

In 2020, wheat, meslin flour, and cereals exports from Tunisia stood at 11 553 K $ US, representing a 7.3% rise from the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, exports decreased by 29.3%, with a compound annual growth rate of -10.9%. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 10 767 K $ US, while the highest was in 2018 at 16 439 K $ US. The largest decline occurred in 2019, with a drop of 34.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Tunisia in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, exports in value terms of wheat, meslin flour, and cereals from Tunisia relied on a wide range of partner countries. Libya (24.8% of exports in value terms), Mali (14.2%), and Benin (10.4%) together accounted for just 49.3% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Tunisia in value, 2017-2020

Imports wheat and meslin flour and cereals to Tunisia

Imports in kind, t

The market exhibited an unstable trend throughout the timeframe. Imports reached their lowest point in 2018 at 42 t and peaked in 2020 at 651 t, resulting in a 16-fold gap between these years. In 2020, Tunisia imported 651 t, which is up by 503.3% compared to 2019. The largest decline was recorded in 2018, with a 49.6% drop.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Tunisia in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Italy and France were the dominant sources for imports in volume terms of wheat, meslin flour, and cereals to Tunisia, jointly accounting for 90.3% of total flows. The remaining volume was distributed among smaller markets.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Tunisia in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

The data reveals irregular changes, indicating a volatile market environment. Import values dropped to their minimum in 2018 at 32 K $ US and climbed to their maximum in 2020 at 369 K $ US, representing an 11.7-fold shift. In 2020, deliveries amounted to 369 K $ US, indicating an abrupt rise of 492.5% compared with 2019. The largest decline was recorded in 2018, with a 43.4% decrease.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Tunisia in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Throughout 2017 to 2020, Italy and France remained the principal sources for imports in value terms, jointly taking 91.7% of total flows. Other partners each accounted for significantly smaller shares.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Tunisia in value, 2017-2020