Wheat and meslin flour and cereals market in Eastern Africa

Earlier Report Observations

The wheat and meslin flour and cereals market in Eastern Africa expanded from 9 110 тыс. т in 2018 to 9 831 тыс. т in 2019, supported by government initiatives to establish large market centers and extend weekend markets, which improved commercial infrastructure and buyer-seller confidence. Concurrent state support for the agri-food industry, including help in resolving manufacturing bottlenecks, strengthened local production capacity. The market volume then saw a period of stabilization, edging down to 9 666 тыс. т in 2020.

Market growth resumed strongly, reaching 10 802 тыс. т in 2021. After a contraction to 10 068 тыс. т in 2022, the market recovered to 10 697 тыс. т in 2023. This recovery was aided by the resolution of drought conditions noted by the Central Bank of Uganda, which led to improved harvests. During this period, federal governments continued to reinforce agricultural production capabilities and promoted exports, while Ethiopia implemented national strategies for food security and agricultural product quality for 2024-2030, supporting longer-term market development.

In 2024, Ethiopia launched an agricultural reform aiming for wheat self-sufficiency and exports by banning wheat imports to stimulate local production, with a target of 40 million quintals. Governments in the region also supported agricultural market modernization through digital platforms like 'Zemen Gebeya' to facilitate trade and logistics. Global soft wheat prices remained highly volatile due to climatic and geopolitical factors, including the war in Ukraine, influencing regional market conditions.

Production wheat and meslin flour and cereals in Eastern Africa

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2017-2020

World map of production of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2017-2020

After two consecutive years of growth, wheat and meslin flour and cereals production in Eastern Africa experienced a decline. In 2020, the region produced 9 396 thousand tons, marking a 1.8% decrease from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, production rose by 5.2%, with an average annual growth rate of 1.7%. The highest production level was recorded in 2019 at 9 565 thousand tons, which also saw the largest annual increase of 6.9%.

Annual dynamics of production in Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports wheat and meslin flour and cereals from Eastern Africa

Exports in kind, K t

The export market for wheat and meslin flour and cereals from Eastern Africa showed an unstable trend during this period. Exports reached their lowest point in 2017 and peaked in 2018, with a 1.9-fold difference between these years. In 2020, exports amounted to 207.9 thousand tons, representing a moderate increase of 9.0% compared to 2019. The maximum export volume was recorded in 2018 at 307.2 thousand tons, which also saw the largest annual increase of 86.8%. The largest decline occurred in 2019 with a 37.9% drop.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, the Democratic Republic of the Congo was the primary destination for Eastern Africa's wheat and meslin flour and cereals exports, accounting for 63.3% of the total volume. South Africa followed with 8.2%, and France with 2.9%. Together, these three countries represented 74.4% of all export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

In 2020, wheat and meslin flour and cereals exports from Eastern Africa generated 90.3 million US dollars, up 9.5% from 2019. However, over the 2017-2020 period, export value decreased by 19.1%, equivalent to an average annual decline of 6.8%. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 82.5 million US dollars, which also saw the largest annual decline of 40.2%. The highest value occurred in 2018 at 137.9 million US dollars, marking the largest annual increase of 23.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

During 2017-2020, the Democratic Republic of the Congo dominated Eastern Africa's wheat and meslin flour and cereals exports in value terms, representing 72.0% of total flows. The remaining share was distributed among various smaller destinations.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020

Imports wheat and meslin flour and cereals to Eastern Africa

Imports in kind, K t

In 2020, Eastern Africa imported 477.8 thousand tons of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, a 4.6% increase from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports grew by 31.2%, with an average annual growth rate of 9.5%. The largest annual increase occurred in 2018 at 28.3%, while the largest decline was recorded in 2019 with a 2.3% drop.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Egypt, Turkey, and Ukraine were the leading sources of wheat and meslin flour and cereals imports to Eastern Africa. Egypt accounted for 39.2% of import volume, Turkey for 37.7%, and Ukraine for 3.9%. Collectively, these three countries supplied 80.8% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Following two years of growth, wheat and meslin flour and cereals imports to Eastern Africa declined in value. In 2020, import value reached 173.6 million US dollars, down 4.6% from 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, import value increased by 31.8%, with an average annual growth rate of 9.6%. The highest value was recorded in 2019 at 182.0 million US dollars, while the largest annual increase occurred in 2018 at 29.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, Egypt, Turkey, and South Africa formed the main group of sources for Eastern Africa's wheat and meslin flour and cereals imports in value terms. Egypt accounted for 36.3% of import value, Turkey for 33.6%, and South Africa for 5.5%. Together, these three countries represented 75.5% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020