Wheat and meslin flour and cereals market in Nigeria

Earlier Report Observations

The Nigerian wheat and meslin flour market, dominated by large state-owned millers, saw production fluctuate between 3.5 and 4 million tonnes from 2018 to 2023. A key driver was the government's temporary zero-duty import policy on wheat, introduced to curb flour prices. Combined with coordinated sector responses through the Flour Milling Association of Nigeria (FMAN), this policy helped mitigate the impact of high global wheat prices stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, supporting raw material imports and contributing to a market peak of over 4 million tonnes in 2020.

From 2021, the market entered a period of decline. Persistent high global wheat prices due to Black Sea supply constraints increased production costs. Concurrently, foreign exchange scarcity limited millers' ability to pay for imports, despite the continued duty waiver. Consumer demand was also dampened by high food inflation, which pushed households toward cheaper blended flours containing cassava or millet, reducing overall wheat flour consumption. These factors collectively led to a contraction in market volume to 3.3 million tonnes by 2023.

Structural changes within the industry, such as FMN's acquisition of Honeywell Flour Mills, introduced transitional disruptions. Efforts to boost local wheat sourcing, including a price-fixing memorandum between FMAN and wheat farmers, had limited immediate effect on flour production. Meanwhile, new players like Olam's Crown Flour Mills expanded capacity with state-of-the-art facilities, and imports of U.S. wheat surged as millers diversified supply sources away from Russia, altering the market's input dynamics in later years.

Production wheat and meslin flour and cereals in Nigeria

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Nigeria ranked 22nd globally in the production of wheat and meslin flour and cereals.

Top producers of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2017-2020

World map of production of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2017-2020

In 2020, Nigeria produced 4 032 K t of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, representing a 14.1% increase compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, production grew by 15.4%, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.9%. The largest decline occurred in 2019, when production fell by 2.7%.

Annual dynamics of production in Nigeria in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports wheat and meslin flour and cereals from Nigeria

Exports in kind, t

Cross-border shipments of wheat and meslin flour and cereals from Nigeria declined for the second consecutive year. In 2019, exports totaled 8 t, marking a sharp decrease of 79.5% compared to 2018. Between 2017 and 2019, exports dropped by 98.9%, equivalent to an annualized decline of 78.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Nigeria in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Ghana and Niger dominated Nigeria's exports of wheat and meslin flour and cereals in kind, jointly accounting for 98.2% of total flows, while other countries held much smaller shares.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Nigeria in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

Exports of wheat and meslin flour and cereals from Nigeria declined for the second year in a row. In 2019, exports reached 5 K $ US, showing a sharp drop of 68.2% compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2019, exports decreased by 98.3%, which translates to an annualized decline of 74.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Nigeria in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Over the 2017-2020 period, Ghana and Niger consistently accounted for 99.0% of Nigeria's total exports in value terms, indicating a high degree of concentration alongside a long tail of smaller markets.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Nigeria in value, 2017-2020

Imports wheat and meslin flour and cereals to Nigeria

Imports in kind, t

The market showed signs of volatility during the observed period. The lowest import volume was recorded in 2018 at 1 850 t, while the highest occurred in 2020 at 16 790 t, representing a 9.1-fold increase from the trough to the peak. In 2020, Nigeria imported 16 790 t of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, a steep increase of 418.1% compared to 2019. The largest decline was recorded in 2018, when imports fell by 79.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Nigeria in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, China accounted for 86.3% of Nigeria's total imports in kind of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, with the remaining flows distributed across multiple smaller partners.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Nigeria in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

The market exhibited an unstable trend throughout the timeframe. The minimum import value was recorded in 2018 at 1 894 K $ US, while the peak hit 18 776 K $ US in 2020, showing a 9.9-fold gap. In 2020, Nigeria imported 18 776 K $ US of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, a dramatic advance of 295.0% versus the previous year. The largest decline occurred in 2018, when imports dropped by 53.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Nigeria in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Throughout 2017-2020, China dominated the country structure of Nigeria's imports in value terms, accounting for 85.4% of total flows, while other destinations were relatively small.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Nigeria in value, 2017-2020