Wheat and meslin flour and cereals market in Afghanistan

Earlier Report Observations

The market for wheat and meslin flour and cereals in Afghanistan increased from 5.0 million tonnes in 2018 to 5.3 million tonnes in 2020, driven primarily by rising domestic production despite chronic challenges like low wheat yields and heavy reliance on imported flour. This growth was interrupted in 2021 when the market contracted to 4.9 million tonnes, a result of a sharp decline in flour imports while local output held steady.

Market volume rebounded to 5.3 million tonnes in 2022, largely due to a significant rise in imports that compensated for a drop in domestic production. This import surge was influenced by the Ukraine conflict, which disrupted global wheat supplies and raised international prices, affecting regional trade flows. The market expanded further to 5.8 million tonnes in 2023, supported by favorable local harvests, stable retail flour prices aided by currency stability, and sustained high import levels.

Production wheat and meslin flour and cereals in Afghanistan

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Afghanistan was among the world's leading producers of wheat and meslin flour and cereals from 2017 to 2020, ranking 26th globally by production volume during this period.

Top producers of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2017-2020

World map of production of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2017-2020

Afghanistan's production of wheat and meslin flour and cereals increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, the country produced 3 412 K t, marking a 1.8% year-over-year rise. Between 2017 and 2020, production grew by 11.5%, which translates to an annualized rate of 3.7%. The lowest production volume was recorded in 2018 at 2 738 K t, with the largest decline that year of 10.5%. In contrast, the largest increase occurred in 2019, with a 22.3% surge.

Annual dynamics of production in Afghanistan in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports wheat and meslin flour and cereals from Afghanistan

Exports in kind, K t

In 2020, Afghanistan's exports of wheat and meslin flour and cereals totaled 0.0 K t, showing minimal change from 2019. Between 2018 and 2020, exports increased by 1 317.2%, equating to an annualized growth rate of 142.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Afghanistan in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Afghanistan's exports of wheat and meslin flour and cereals were heavily dependent on the United States, which accounted for 93.3% of total export volumes.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Afghanistan in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Afghanistan exported 0.0 M $ US worth of wheat and meslin flour and cereals in 2020, remaining stable compared to the previous year. Between 2018 and 2020, exports increased by 2 474.3%, with an annualized rate of 195.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Afghanistan in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

During 2017–2020, Afghanistan's exports of wheat and meslin flour and cereals in value terms were highly concentrated on the United States, which represented 94.1% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Afghanistan in value, 2017-2020

Imports wheat and meslin flour and cereals to Afghanistan

Imports in kind, K t

In 2020, Afghanistan's imports of wheat and meslin flour and cereals reached 1 925 K t, a 3.4% increase compared to 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, imports decreased by 12.8%, with an annualized decline rate of 4.5%. The lowest import volume was recorded in 2019 at 1 860 K t, which saw the largest decline of 18.2%. The highest import volume occurred in 2018 at 2 273 K t, with the largest increase that year of 2.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Afghanistan in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan were the dominant sources for Afghanistan's imports of wheat and meslin flour and cereals in kind, jointly accounting for 84.8% of total import flows, while the remainder was distributed among other markets.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Afghanistan in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Afghanistan's imports of wheat and meslin flour and cereals in value terms declined for the second consecutive year. In 2020, import volume reached 561.5 M $ US, indicating a 0.6% year-over-year decrease. Over the period 2017–2020, imports fell by 24.8%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -9.1%. The highest value was recorded in 2018 at 764.5 M $ US, which also saw the largest increase of 2.4%. The largest decline occurred in 2019, with a 26.1% drop.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Afghanistan in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Throughout 2017–2020, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan concentrated 85.6% of Afghanistan's total imports of wheat and meslin flour and cereals in value terms, with the remaining share distributed among other destinations that made smaller individual contributions.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Afghanistan in value, 2017-2020