Unmanufactured tobacco and refuse market in Ethiopia

Earlier Report Observations

The market for unmanufactured tobacco and refuse in Ethiopia saw significant shifts between 2018 and 2020. Following the privatization of the state-owned National Tobacco Enterprise in 2017, which transferred a 71 % stake to Japan Tobacco International and 29 % to Sheba Company, the newly private monopoly likely contributed to a surge in imports, driving market volume up by 22 % to 5 091 metric tons in 2019. However, the enactment of the comprehensive Tobacco Control Proclamation 1112/2019, which introduced 100 % smoke-free public places and banned advertising, coupled with the introduction of a mixed excise tax regime in 2020, sharply reduced affordability and consumption, leading to a 39 % market contraction to 3 109 metric tons in 2020.

From 2021 to 2023, the market continued to decline, albeit at a slower pace, reaching 2 572 metric tons in 2022 before a modest recovery to 2 850 metric tons in 2023. Studies highlighted gaps in enforcement of the smoke-free law, while the persistent illicit cigarette market, estimated at 19 % in 2018, undermined the impact of tax and labeling measures. Capacity-building trainings for enforcement officials initiated in 2022 aimed to strengthen implementation, but corporate-social-responsibility activities by the National Tobacco Enterprise illustrated ongoing industry interference, complicating control efforts.

Production unmanufactured tobacco and refuse in Ethiopia

In kind, 2017-2020, t

Top producers of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse, 2017-2020

World map of production of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse, 2017-2020

Ethiopia's production of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse reached 2 183 tonnes in 2020, marking a 1.9% increase from the previous year. The lowest production level was recorded in 2019 at 2 141 tonnes, while the highest was in 2018 at 2 223 tonnes. The most significant decline occurred in 2019, with a drop of 3.7%.

Annual dynamics of production in Ethiopia in kind, 2017-2020, t

Exports unmanufactured tobacco and refuse from Ethiopia

Exports in kind, t

Export volumes showed noticeable fluctuations during this period. The lowest point was in 2018, while the peak occurred in 2019, with exports changing by 3.7 times between these years. In 2020, Ethiopia exported 0.2 tonnes of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse, representing a 4.2% decrease compared to 2019. The highest export volume was recorded in 2019 at 0.2 tonnes, with the largest increase that year reaching 273.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Ethiopia in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Malawi and Germany were the primary destinations for Ethiopia's exports in kind, together accounting for 89.8% of total export flows. The remaining share was distributed among various other markets.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Ethiopia in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

Ethiopia's cross-border shipments of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, exports amounted to 2 thousand US dollars, reflecting a substantial rise of 131.8% compared to 2019. Over the period from 2018 to 2020, exports grew by 651.3%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 95.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Ethiopia in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, Germany remained the leading buyer of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse from Ethiopia in value terms, accounting for 76.8% of total exports. The remainder was spread across numerous other countries.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Ethiopia in value, 2017-2020

Imports unmanufactured tobacco and refuse to Ethiopia

Imports in kind, t

Import volumes exhibited volatility over the observed period. The peak was in 2019, while the trough was in 2020, with a 3.2-fold difference between these years. In 2020, Ethiopia's imports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse reached 926 tonnes, indicating a decline of 68.6% from the previous year. The maximum import volume was recorded in 2019 at 2 950 tonnes, with the largest increase occurring in 2018 at 96.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Ethiopia in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, India, China, and Brazil consistently held the top positions in Ethiopia's import structure in kind, with shares of 50.3%, 25.3%, and 20.9%, respectively. Together, these three countries accounted for 96.6% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Ethiopia in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

Import values showed signs of volatility during this period. The peak was in 2019, while the lowest point was in 2017, with a 4.5-fold difference between these years. In 2020, Ethiopia's cross-border shipments of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse totaled 3 897 thousand US dollars, representing a decrease of 67.7% compared to 2019. The maximum value was recorded in 2019 at 12 066 thousand US dollars, with the largest increase occurring in 2018 at 258.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Ethiopia in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, India, China, and Brazil formed the main group of sources for Ethiopia's imports in value terms, with shares of 45.4%, 28.3%, and 22.4%, respectively. Collectively, these three countries accounted for 96.1% of total import flows in value terms.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Ethiopia in value, 2017-2020