Shelled walnuts market in CIS

Earlier Report Observations

Between 2018 and 2020, the shelled walnuts market in the CIS saw initial growth followed by stabilization. The rise in market volume to nearly 58 000 t in 2019 was supported by growing consumer demand, evidenced by a sharp increase in walnut imports and their expanding use in confectionery products as a source of bioactive substances. In 2020, despite a dip in imports, the market volume held steady around 55 750 t as sanctions and embargoes on agricultural imports began to incentivize domestic processors to develop local nut production.

From 2021 to 2023, the market demonstrated significant growth in physical terms, overcoming a temporary contraction. Strong growth in retail sales, fueled by a consumer shift towards healthy eating, pushed the market volume to over 68 800 t in 2021. After a modest decline in 2022, the market rebounded sharply in 2023, exceeding 82 800 t, a surge that occurred alongside a noted increase in demand for whole, in-shell walnuts perceived by consumers as fresher and more natural.

Production shelled walnuts in CIS

In kind, 2017-2020, t

Top producers of shelled walnuts, 2017-2020

World map of production of shelled walnuts, 2017-2020

After two consecutive years of growth, shelled walnut production in the CIS declined. In 2020, production reached 53 845 tonnes, marking a slight year-on-year decrease of 2.6%. Over the 2017-2020 period, production increased by 13.4%, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.3%. The peak was recorded in 2019 at 55 285 tonnes, which also saw the largest annual increase of 10.8%.

Annual dynamics of production in CIS in kind, 2017-2020, t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Following two years of improvement, shelled walnut production in the CIS declined in value terms. In 2020, output was valued at 313.4 million US dollars, representing an 8.4% drop from the previous year. From 2017 to 2020, production value increased by 15.4%, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.9%. The highest value was recorded in 2019 at 342.4 million US dollars, while the largest annual increase occurred in 2018 at 20.9%.

Annual dynamics of production in CIS in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports shelled walnuts from CIS

Exports in kind, t

In 2020, foreign supplies of shelled walnuts from the CIS amounted to 16 172 tonnes, showing a substantial decline of 16.8% compared to 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports decreased by 26.5%, with a compound annual decline rate of 9.8%. The largest drop was recorded in 2018 at 23.1%, while the largest increase occurred in 2019 at 14.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from CIS in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, France, Turkey, and Germany were notable buyers of shelled walnuts from the CIS, accounting for 18.1%, 11.6%, and 11.3% of exports in kind, respectively. However, their combined share reached only 41.0% of total exports, indicating they were not dominant in the market.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from CIS in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

In 2020, shelled walnut exports from the CIS stood at 94.1 million US dollars, which is 21.8% lower than in 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, export value decreased by 25.2%, with a compound annual decline rate of 9.2%. The largest increase was recorded in 2019 at 8.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from CIS in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

During 2017-2020, shelled walnuts from the CIS were supplied to a diverse range of markets. Even the largest destinations—France, Germany, and the Netherlands—together represented only 44.1% of total exports in value terms.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from CIS in value, 2017-2020

Imports shelled walnuts to CIS

Imports in kind, t

Market performance showed noticeable fluctuations during this period. The lowest import volume was recorded in 2017, while the peak occurred in 2019, with a 2.3-fold difference between these years. In 2020, shipments of shelled walnuts to the CIS from abroad amounted to 18 077 tonnes, corresponding to an 18.1% year-on-year decline. The maximum volume was recorded in 2019 at 22 079 tonnes, which also saw the largest annual increase of 107.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to CIS in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, three main markets—Ukraine, China, and Chile—together absorbed 80.3% of total shelled walnut imports in kind to the CIS.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to CIS in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

After a two-year increase, cross-border shipments of shelled walnuts to the CIS declined. In 2020, imports were valued at approximately 58.5 million US dollars, representing a limited reduction of 3.4% compared to 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, import value increased by 68.1%, equating to an annualized growth rate of 18.9%. The peak value was recorded in 2019 at 60.5 million US dollars, which also saw the largest annual increase of 40.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to CIS in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Throughout 2017-2020, Ukraine, China, and Chile formed the core of shelled walnut imports in value terms, accounting for 38.3%, 20.1%, and 16.8% of imports, respectively. Together, they took 75.2% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to CIS in value, 2017-2020