Almonds market in Southern Africa

Earlier Report Observations

Between 2018 and 2020, almond production in Southern Africa remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 1,037 and 1,048 tons. The market volume initially grew to 4,432 tons in 2019 before contracting to 3,948 tons in 2020, primarily driven by changes in import levels. During this period, regional seed regulation harmonization efforts by the Southern African Development Community (SADC), focusing on seed quality, provided a supportive backdrop for agricultural output. Concurrently, a reported 35.1% global surge in almond production between 2017 and 2020 enhanced the availability of imports, contributing to the peak in market volume observed in 2019.

A significant shift occurred from 2021 to 2022. Market volume dropped to 3,384 tons in 2021, a year that saw strengthened export regulations for shea nuts in West African countries like Côte d'Ivoire, potentially disrupting regional nut trade flows. The market rebounded strongly in 2022, reaching 4,171 tons. This recovery coincided with SADC initiatives promoting regional food security and crop specialization, which fostered interregional trade. This policy environment was mirrored in the trade data, with imports soaring to 5,438 tons and exports rising sharply to 2,312 tons, indicating heightened regional market activity.

The market underwent a notable transformation from 2023 onward. Despite severe El Niño-induced drought conditions affecting broader agricultural production in the region, local almond output proved resilient, increasing to 1,053 tons. However, the total market volume fell to 2,543 tons in 2023 as export volumes grew to 3,433 tons. The period also saw a regional trend toward increased consumption of ultra-processed foods, which can incorporate almonds as an ingredient. Into 2024, a significant drop in global fertilizer prices lowered agricultural input costs, while export bans on raw shea nuts from several West African nations altered nut supply dynamics in Africa. South Africa's record agricultural export performance further highlighted the region's evolving trade posture.

Production almonds in Southern Africa

In kind, 2017-2020, t

Top producers of almonds, 2017-2020

World map of production of almonds, 2017-2020

Almond production in Southern Africa has increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the region produced 1 048 tonnes of almonds, which remained virtually unchanged compared to the previous year.

Annual dynamics of production in Southern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, t

Exports almonds from Southern Africa

Exports in kind, t

The market showed noticeable fluctuations during this period. In 2019, Southern Africa's almond exports reached their lowest point at 42 tonnes, but then surged dramatically to 411 tonnes in 2020, marking an 870.0% increase. The difference between these peak and trough values was 9.7 times, with the largest decline of 47.6% occurring in 2019.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Southern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Southern Africa exported almonds to a diverse range of markets. Russia accounted for 34.5% of exports in volume, Spain for 7.0%, and the Netherlands for 4.5%, together making up 46.0% of total exports. The remaining 54.0% was distributed among many smaller destinations.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Southern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

The data reveals irregular changes, indicating a volatile market environment. In 2019, almond exports from Southern Africa bottomed at 554 thousand US dollars, but then peaked in 2020 at 2 807 thousand US dollars, showing a dramatic improvement of 406.8% compared to the prior year. The difference between these years was a factor of 5.1, with the largest decline of 50.0% recorded in 2019.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Southern Africa in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, the leading destinations for Southern Africa's almond exports in value terms were Russia, with 41.2% of exports, the United States with 12.9%, and the Netherlands with 5.9%. Together, these three markets accounted for 60.0% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Southern Africa in value, 2017-2020

Imports almonds to Southern Africa

Imports in kind, t

In 2020, Southern Africa imported 3 311 tonnes of almonds, down by 3.4% year-on-year. The minimum value was recorded in 2018 at 2 990 tonnes, while the maximum was in 2019 at 3 429 tonnes, with the largest increase of 14.7% occurring that year. Overall, between 2017 and 2020, imports grew by 9.9%, equating to an annualized rate of 3.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Southern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, the United States was the primary source for Southern Africa's almond imports in volume, accounting for 81.2% of total flows. Other markets formed a long tail of smaller partners.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Southern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

In 2020, Southern Africa's almond imports totaled 18 665 thousand US dollars, which is 13.1% lower compared to 2019. The minimum value was recorded in 2018 at 18 433 thousand US dollars, while the maximum was in 2019 at 21 475 thousand US dollars, with the largest increase of 16.5% occurring that year.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Southern Africa in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, the United States remained the main supplier of almonds to Southern Africa, taking 81.3% of total imports in value terms. The remaining volume was distributed among other countries.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Southern Africa in value, 2017-2020