Semi-milled or wholly milled rice market in ASEAN

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2020, the ASEAN market for semi-milled or wholly milled rice contracted in 2019, largely due to high production costs for inputs like fertilizers, labor, and land rental reported in the Philippines, which constrained output. The market rebounded in 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic heightened global food demand and regional operators adapted their supply chains to maintain production and import flows, supporting a recovery in market volume.

The market expanded again in 2021, driven by increased import demand from key regional buyers like the Philippines and China, which stimulated production. However, in 2022, a surge in global export demand and high logistics costs slowed import purchases and redirected supply abroad, reducing domestic availability. By 2023, the market stabilized as record-high global prices—fueled by export restrictions in India and El Niño-related supply shortages—boosted exports from the region, but this was offset by a significant rise in imports.

Production semi-milled or wholly milled rice in ASEAN

In kind, 2017-2020, M t

Top producers of semi-milled or wholly milled rice, 2017-2020

World map of production of semi-milled or wholly milled rice, 2017-2020

ASEAN's production of semi-milled or wholly milled rice showed minimal change in 2020, reaching 101.4 million tonnes. This followed a slight decrease from 2019, when production was at its lowest point of 101.0 million tonnes. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production declined by 3.4%, which translates to an annualized rate of 1.1%. The peak was recorded in 2018 at 106.6 million tonnes, marking the largest increase of 1.5% that year. Conversely, the most significant decline occurred in 2019 with a drop of 5.2%.

Annual dynamics of production in ASEAN in kind, 2017-2020, M t

Exports semi-milled or wholly milled rice from ASEAN

Exports in kind, K t

After two years of contraction, ASEAN's exports of semi-milled or wholly milled rice rebounded in 2020, totaling 9 222 thousand tonnes, a 2.1% increase from the previous year. However, looking at the broader period from 2017 to 2020, exports fell by 35.5%, averaging an annualized decline of 13.6%. The lowest export volume was recorded in 2019 at 9 029 thousand tonnes, with the largest drop occurring in 2018 at 25.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from ASEAN in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, the top buyers of semi-milled or wholly milled rice from ASEAN included China, accounting for 11.6% of exports in kind, Benin at 9.6%, and South Africa at 5.7%. Together, these three countries represented just 26.8% of total exports, highlighting a broadly diversified partner base for ASEAN's rice trade.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from ASEAN in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

ASEAN's exports of semi-milled or wholly milled rice in value terms declined for the second consecutive year in 2020, standing at 6 308 million US dollars, a 1.7% decrease from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports dropped by 14.4%, with an annualized rate of 5.1%. The highest value was recorded in 2018 at 8 000 million US dollars, which also saw the largest increase of 8.5%. In contrast, the most significant decline occurred in 2019 with a fall of 19.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from ASEAN in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, ASEAN's exports of semi-milled or wholly milled rice in value terms were widely dispersed across partner countries. China led with 13.0% of exports, followed by Benin at 6.9%, and the United States at 5.9%. Combined, these three markets accounted for only 25.9% of total export value, underscoring the diversity of ASEAN's trade partners.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from ASEAN in value, 2017-2020

Imports semi-milled or wholly milled rice to ASEAN

Imports in kind, K t

ASEAN's imports of semi-milled or wholly milled rice in kind were marked by volatility from 2017 to 2020. In 2019, imports bottomed out at 974 thousand tonnes, representing the largest decline of 55.5% that year. By 2020, imports surged to approximately 2 450 thousand tonnes, a dramatic increase of 151.6% year-over-year, peaking at 2.5 times the 2019 level.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to ASEAN in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Throughout 2017-2020, India, Pakistan, and China remained the core sources for ASEAN's imports of semi-milled or wholly milled rice in kind, collectively accounting for 14.3% of total import volumes.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to ASEAN in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

ASEAN's imports of semi-milled or wholly milled rice in value terms exhibited significant volatility from 2017 to 2020. In 2017, imports reached their minimum, while they peaked in 2018 at 2 277 million US dollars, a 137.0% increase that year—the largest on record. By 2020, imports declined to an unspecified value, down 3.3% from the previous year. The most notable drop occurred in 2019 with an 18.4% decrease. Overall, the peak-to-bottom ratio over this period was 2.4 times.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to ASEAN in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, India, Pakistan, and China formed the core group of markets for ASEAN's imports of semi-milled or wholly milled rice in value terms. India accounted for 9.3% of imports, Pakistan for 5.0%, and China for 0.7%, together representing 15.0% of total import value.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to ASEAN in value, 2017-2020