Rye market in Germany

Earlier Report Observations

The volume of the German rye market increased from 2.6 million tonnes in 2018 to 4.2 million tonnes in 2020. This growth was fueled by a historic low harvest in 2018, which drove producer prices to a five-year peak. In response, cultivation area was expanded by more than 20% in 2019, a move facilitated by the abolition of compulsory set-aside land. Continued tight global stocks and supply shortages in Eastern Europe's rye belt maintained upward price pressure and supported both domestic output and import volumes.

Market volume then contracted to 3.2 million tonnes in 2022. Below-average grain harvests in 2021 limited domestic supply, and the outbreak of war in Ukraine in 2022 disrupted global trade, causing rye prices to rise over 20%. This price shock led to a sharp reduction in imports, which fell from 766 thousand tonnes in 2021 to 356 thousand tonnes in 2022. Meanwhile, demand from biogas plants grew, while use for ethanol production declined, and consumer prices for rye bread increased significantly.

In 2023, the market partially recovered to 3.3 million tonnes as imports rebounded to 493 thousand tonnes and exports decreased. Producer prices remained elevated, reflecting the ongoing adjustment after the supply shocks.

Production rye in Germany

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Germany held the top position globally in rye production.

Top producers of rye, 2017-2020

World map of production of rye, 2017-2020

Germany's rye production volume rose for the second year in a row. In 2020, Germany produced 3 513 K t of rye, marking a modest increase of 8.5% compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, production grew by 28.3%, which translates to an annualized rate of 8.7%. The lowest production level was recorded in 2018 at 2 201 K t, with the largest decline that year at 19.6%. Conversely, the largest increase occurred in 2019, when production jumped by 47.1%.

Annual dynamics of production in Germany in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Rye production in Germany increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the output of rye in Germany was valued at 897.1 M $ US, reflecting a 4.8% rise from the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production increased by 32.2%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.7%.

Annual dynamics of production in Germany in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports rye from Germany

Exports in kind, K t

The market exhibited volatility during the observed period. Exports reached their lowest point in 2018 at 145.1 K t, with the largest decline that year at 15.1%. They then surged to a peak in 2020 at 265.7 K t, which was 3.3% higher than in 2019. Overall, exports varied by a factor of 1.8 between the trough in 2018 and the peak in 2020. The largest increase was recorded in 2019 at 77.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Germany in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, the United States (34.9% of exports in kind), the Netherlands (34.8% of exports in kind), and Japan (9.0% of exports in kind) were the leading contributors to exports in kind, collectively accounting for 78.7% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Germany in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

After a two-year upward trend, rye exports from Germany declined. In 2020, exports totaled 67.8 M $ US, remaining relatively stable compared to the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, exports increased by 60%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.0%. The highest value was recorded in 2019 at 68.0 M $ US, which also saw the largest increase that year at 47.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Germany in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, the Netherlands (27.3% of exports in value terms), the United States (24.8% of exports in value terms), and Japan (9.0% of exports in value terms) led the export structure in value terms, together representing 61.1% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Germany in value, 2017-2020

Imports rye to Germany

Imports in kind, K t

Volatility characterized the market during these years. Imports hit their lowest point in 2017 and peaked in 2020, showing a 2.9-fold variation. In 2020, rye deliveries to Germany amounted to 911.5 K t, an 88.2% increase from the prior year. The largest decline was recorded in 2019 at 6.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Germany in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Throughout 2017 to 2020, Poland dominated the partner structure for imports in kind, accounting for 75.5% of total flows, while other markets had relatively modest shares.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Germany in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

The market showed signs of volatility over the observed period. Import levels fluctuated 2.5-fold between the low in 2017 and the high in 2020. In 2020, Germany imported 168.0 M $ US worth of rye, which was 61.8% higher than the previous year. The largest decline occurred in 2019 at 11.0%, while the largest increase was in 2018 at 74.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Germany in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Poland (67.9% of imports in value terms), Latvia (6.1% of imports in value terms), and France (4.1% of imports in value terms) were the main suppliers of rye to Germany, together comprising 78.2% of total imports in value terms.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Germany in value, 2017-2020