Rice market in Tajikistan

Earlier Report Observations

The rice market in Tajikistan expanded from 125.4 thousand tons in 2018 to 178.6 thousand tons in 2020, driven by a steady increase in domestic production. This growth was initiated by higher rice yields beginning in 2018, indirectly supported by the resumption of natural gas supplies from Uzbekistan that year, which improved agricultural infrastructure. Production rose from 90.4 thousand tons to 133.4 thousand tons over this period, while imports also increased, peaking in 2020.

In 2021, market volume fell to 151.8 thousand tons despite a rise in production to 141.7 thousand tons. The decline was primarily due to a sharp contraction in rice imports, which dropped from 45.3 thousand tons to 10.1 thousand tons as the country relied more on its own harvest. This shift toward domestic supply was part of a broader trend to reduce import dependency.

Market size recovered to 179.2 thousand tons in 2022 and reached 194.3 thousand tons in 2023. Production kept climbing, attaining 161.9 thousand tons in 2023, with the country supplying over one-third of its internal market from domestic grain. Global factors, including a 1.3% rise in world rice production in 2023, helped sustain local output, while imports partially rebounded in 2022 before stabilizing.

Production rice in Tajikistan

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of rice, 2017-2020

World map of production of rice, 2017-2020

Rice production in Tajikistan increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, the country produced 133.4 K t of rice, marking a significant 25.3% year-over-year advance. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production grew by 36.5%, with a compound annual growth rate of 10.9%. The lowest production level was recorded in 2018 at 90.4 K t, which also saw the largest decline of 7.5%.

Annual dynamics of production in Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports rice from Tajikistan

Exports in kind, t

Market performance showed noticeable fluctuations during this period. Exports varied significantly, with a 16-fold difference between the high in 2017 and the low in 2020. In 2020, rice deliveries from Tajikistan totaled 43 t, representing a sharp decrease of 89.4% compared to the previous year. The largest increase occurred in 2019, at 31.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Iraq and Kazakhstan accounted for the majority of Tajikistan's rice exports in kind, while other markets played a less significant role.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

The market exhibited an unstable trend throughout the timeframe. There was a substantial 13.4-fold difference between the peak in 2019 and the trough in 2020. In 2020, cross-border shipments of rice from Tajikistan reached 9 K $ US, equivalent to a contraction of 92.6% compared to 2019. The maximum value was recorded in 2019 at 126 K $ US, which also saw the largest increase of 200.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

In the period from 2017 to 2020, Iraq (38.3% of exports in value terms), Kazakhstan (25.3%), and the United States (22.0%) formed the main cluster of markets for Tajikistan's rice exports in value terms, together accounting for 85.7% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020

Imports rice to Tajikistan

Imports in kind, t

After a two-year advance, the volume of rice imports to Tajikistan declined. In 2020, imports were recorded at 45 276 t, reflecting a slight decrease of 1.0% versus the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports increased by 79.3%, equating to an annualized rate of 21.5%. The maximum value was recorded in 2019 at 45 714 t, while the largest increase occurred in 2018 at 39.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Kazakhstan was the principal market for rice imports to Tajikistan in kind, accounting for 87.0% of total imports, with other destinations forming a less significant portion.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

After a two-year uptick, Tajikistan's rice imports in value terms declined. In 2020, import volume came to 12 771 K $ US, constituting a drop of 5.8% year-over-year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports increased by 77.2%, equating to an annualized rate of 21.0%. The maximum value was recorded in 2019 at 13 558 K $ US, which also saw the largest increase of 49.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

In the period from 2017 to 2020, Kazakhstan played a leading role in imports in value terms of rice to Tajikistan, with a share of 81.3% of total flows, while the remainder was distributed across other partners.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020