Molasses market in Guatemala

Earlier Report Observations

The Guatemalan molasses market experienced notable shifts between 2018 and 2023. After reaching 488 thousand tons in 2018, market volume fell to 306 thousand tons in 2019 and further to 228 thousand tons in 2020. This decline was primarily driven by adverse weather conditions, including drought and high temperatures, which reduced sugar cane production and consequently molasses output. At the same time, strong export demand, supported by an international quality certification in 2019, diverted supply abroad, tightening domestic availability.

Market volume recovered to 278 thousand tons in 2021 and jumped to 400 thousand tons in 2022. The rebound was fueled by the reactivation of the Alcohol Fuel Law, which mandated a 10% ethanol blend in gasoline starting in 2024. This policy spurred investment in alcohol production from molasses, boosting local consumption. In 2023, however, volume contracted again to 330 thousand tons as climatic factors limited cane yields and higher international prices encouraged exports.

Throughout the period, molasses remained a stable by‑product of Guatemala’s sugar industry, accounting for about 9% of the sector’s total output. The industry is dominated by a dozen sugar mills that maintain significant political and economic influence, while research centers like Cengicaña continue to develop new cane‑based products.

Production molasses in Guatemala

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Globally, Guatemala ranked as the 17th largest producer of molasses during the period from 2017 to 2020.

Top producers of molasses, 2017-2020

World map of production of molasses, 2017-2020

Guatemala's molasses production declined for the second year in a row. In 2020, the country produced 671.8 thousand tons, down 6.3% from the previous year. From 2017 to 2020, production fell by 4.3%, averaging an annual decrease of 1.4%. The highest production level was recorded in 2018 at 730.0 thousand tons, which also saw the largest annual increase of 4.0%.

Annual dynamics of production in Guatemala in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

In 2020, Guatemala's molasses output was valued at 107.9 million US dollars, up 9.0% from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, production value rose by 9.5%, with an average annual growth rate of 3.1%. The peak value occurred in 2018 at 108.3 million US dollars, which also marked the largest annual increase of 9.8%. The most significant decline was in 2019, with an 8.5% drop.

Annual dynamics of production in Guatemala in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports molasses from Guatemala

Exports in kind, K t

Guatemala's molasses exports grew for the second consecutive year. In 2020, the country exported 444.6 thousand tons, an 8.2% increase from 2019. From 2017 to 2020, exports surged by 44.2%, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.0%. The lowest export volume was in 2018 at 242.1 thousand tons, which also experienced the largest annual decline of 21.5%. The biggest annual increase was in 2019, with a 69.8% rise.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Guatemala in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands were the primary markets for Guatemala's molasses exports in volume terms. The United States accounted for 51.4% of exports, the United Kingdom for 13.7%, and the Netherlands for 13.0%. Together, these three countries represented 78.2% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Guatemala in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

Guatemala's molasses export revenues increased for the second year in a row. In 2020, exports reached 71 422 thousand US dollars, a sharp 25.8% gain from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, export value grew by 64.9%, with a compound annual growth rate of 18.1%. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 35 899 thousand US dollars, which also saw the largest annual decline of 17.1%. The most significant annual increase was in 2019, with a 58.1% rise.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Guatemala in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands remained the top buyers of Guatemalan molasses in value terms. The United States held 64.0% of export value, the United Kingdom 9.6%, and the Netherlands 8.6%. Collectively, these three markets accounted for 82.2% of total export value.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Guatemala in value, 2017-2020

Imports molasses to Guatemala

Imports in kind, K t

Molasses imports into Guatemala showed notable fluctuations during this period. Imports reached their lowest point in 2019 at 0.2 thousand tons and peaked in 2020 at 0.4 thousand tons, representing a 2.7-fold difference. In 2020, imports surged by 169.8% compared to 2019. The largest annual decline occurred in 2018, with a 38.1% drop.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Guatemala in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Throughout 2017 to 2020, Belize was the dominant source of molasses imports into Guatemala in volume terms, accounting for 86.1% of total flows. Other countries each held significantly smaller shares.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Guatemala in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

Molasses import values into Guatemala experienced significant volatility during this period. Imports hit a low in 2019 at 37 thousand US dollars and a high in 2020 at 124 thousand US dollars, a 3.3-fold difference. In 2020, import value jumped by 234.6% from the previous year. The largest annual decline was in 2018, with a 53.7% decrease.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Guatemala in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Belize, Honduras, and the United States led Guatemala's molasses imports in value terms. Belize accounted for 56.0% of import value, Honduras for 13.0%, and the United States for 12.5%. Together, these three countries made up 81.5% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Guatemala in value, 2017-2020