Milled rice and broken rice market in Indonesia

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2021, the Indonesian milled rice market experienced a contraction in both production and total volume. After a relatively high production level of 34.7 million tons in 2018, supported by a market size of 36.9 million tons, output declined in 2019. The market structure during this period was characterized by a long and multi-layered supply chain, which influenced price formation at the farm gate. Production and market volume stabilized around 32 million tons in 2020 and 2021.

Government intervention became more pronounced in 2022 with the implementation of a Highest Retail Price (HET) policy to support farmer profitability and the import of 500,000 tons of rice to maintain price stability ahead of the holiday season. In 2023, domestic production fell to a four-year low of 31.6 million tons, a 1.2% decrease, primarily due to delayed harvests and reduced supply from key rice-growing regions. This shortage, coupled with rising paddy prices, led to a significant increase in imports to over 3 million tons to cover the domestic supply gap. A longer-term trend of declining per capita rice consumption, driven by lifestyle changes and dietary diversification, also continued.

Looking ahead to 2024 and 2025, market dynamics are shaped by price pressures and policy responses. The government aims to cease rice imports and is focusing on maintaining paddy and retail prices to protect farmers and low-income consumers, even as paddy prices are expected to rise above IDR 7,000 per kg. Imports spiked to 4.5 million tons in 2024 to replenish stocks. Persistent challenges include an inefficient supply chain causing significant price disparities from farmer to consumer and difficulties in enforcing retail price caps across different rice quality segments.

Production milled rice and broken rice in Indonesia

In kind, 2018-2021, K t

Globally, Indonesia ranked as the fourth largest producer of milled rice and broken rice from 2018 to 2021.

Top producers of milled rice and broken rice, 2018-2021

World map of production of milled rice and broken rice, 2018-2021

Indonesia's production of milled rice and broken rice increased for the second year in a row. In 2021, the country produced 32 391 thousand tons, showing a slight year-over-year gain of 1.1%. However, over the entire period from 2018 to 2021, production decreased by 6.6%, which translates to an annualized decline of 2.3%. The lowest production volume was recorded in 2019 at 32 005 thousand tons, with the largest drop of 7.7% occurring that same year.

Annual dynamics of production in Indonesia in kind, 2018-2021, K t

Exports milled rice and broken rice from Indonesia

Exports in kind, K t

Export volumes showed an unstable trend during this period. They reached their lowest point in 2019 at 0.3 thousand tons and peaked in 2021 at 3 thousand tons, representing a 12.2-fold increase. In 2021, Indonesia exported 3 thousand tons of milled rice and broken rice, which was 894.4% higher than in 2020. The largest decline of 91.8% was recorded in 2019.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Indonesia in kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, the Philippines, Israel, and Turkey were the main markets for Indonesia's exports in kind. The Philippines accounted for 43.2% of exports, Israel for 28.6%, and Turkey for 14.3%. Together, these three countries represented 86.0% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Indonesia in kind, 2018-2021

Exports in value, M $ US

Market performance showed noticeable fluctuations during this period. Export values hit their lowest point in 2019 and peaked in 2021, with a 4.3-fold difference between these years. In 2021, Indonesia exported 2 million US dollars worth of milled rice and broken rice, up 263.8% from the previous year. The minimum value was recorded in 2019 at 0.5 million US dollars, with the largest decline of 65.6% occurring that year.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Indonesia in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

From 2018 to 2021, the Philippines, Israel, and the United States were the primary destinations for Indonesia's exports in value terms. The Philippines absorbed 38.3% of exports, Israel 16.0%, and the United States 12.1%. Collectively, these three markets accounted for 66.4% of total export value.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Indonesia in value, 2018-2021

Imports milled rice and broken rice to Indonesia

Imports in kind, K t

The data reveals irregular changes, indicating a volatile market environment. Import volumes bottomed in 2020 at 356 thousand tons and peaked in 2018, with a 6.3-fold difference between these years. In 2021, Indonesia imported 408 thousand tons of milled rice and broken rice, a solid increase of 14.4% compared to 2020. The largest decline of 80.3% was recorded in 2019.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Indonesia in kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan were the leading suppliers of milled rice and broken rice to Indonesia in kind. Thailand accounted for 29.1% of imports, Vietnam for 27.6%, and Pakistan for 19.0%. Together, these three countries made up 75.6% of total imports.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Indonesia in kind, 2018-2021

Imports in value, M $ US

Market performance exhibited noticeable fluctuations during this period. Import values reached their lowest point in 2021 and peaked in 2018, with a 5.7-fold gap. In 2021, Indonesia's import volume amounted to 183 million US dollars, marking a moderate decrease of 6.1% compared to the previous year. The largest decline of 82.3% was recorded in 2019, while the largest increase of 6.1% occurred in 2020.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Indonesia in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

From 2018 to 2021, Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan consistently held leading positions in Indonesia's import structure in value terms. Thailand accounted for 34.0% of imports, Vietnam for 28.9%, and Pakistan for 16.5%. Collectively, these three suppliers represented 79.4% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Indonesia in value, 2018-2021