Semi-milled or wholly milled rice market in Indonesia

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2023, Indonesia's semi-milled rice market volume showed considerable variation, starting at 35.8 million metric tons in 2018 before dropping to 31.3 million metric tons in 2019. It then stabilized around 31.6–31.8 million metric tons through 2022. A rebound occurred in 2023, with market volume rising to 33.6 million metric tons. This growth was primarily driven by a surge in imports to 2.7 million metric tons, which helped alleviate a domestic price imbalance caused by increased government purchase prices for unmilled rice while retail price ceilings remained unchanged.

Regulatory measures followed to stabilize the market. In 2024, the National Food Agency issued Regulation No. 5, which zoned retail price ceilings for medium and premium rice across Indonesia's regions and extended relaxed pricing rules to ensure supply. Domestic production remained under price pressure that year, leading to imports of 4.0 million metric tons. The situation shifted dramatically in 2025, when national rice production jumped 13.54% to 34.8 million metric tons, fueled by a bumper harvest across ten major provinces. This record output was supported by maintained government price controls and the distribution of subsidized rice, substantially boosting domestic supply.

Throughout the period, the government held retail prices and subsidized rice prices steady despite rising costs for farmers, aiming to contain inflation. However, challenges such as quality issues with grain procured by the state logistics agency and cases of rice adulteration occasionally disrupted retail stocks. These factors illustrate how policy interventions and agricultural performance directly influenced market volumes from 2018 to 2025.

Production semi-milled or wholly milled rice in Indonesia

In kind, 2018-2021, K t

On a global scale, Indonesia ranked as the 4th largest producer of semi-milled or wholly milled rice from 2018 to 2021.

Top producers of semi-milled or wholly milled rice, 2018-2021

World map of production of semi-milled or wholly milled rice, 2018-2021

Indonesia's production of semi-milled or wholly milled rice increased for the second consecutive year. In 2021, the country produced 31 686 K t, marking a 1.1% rise compared to 2020. Over the 2018-2021 period, production overall decreased by 6.6%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.3%. The lowest production volume was recorded in 2019 at 31 313 K t, which also saw the largest decline of 7.7%.

Annual dynamics of production in Indonesia in kind, 2018-2021, K t

Exports semi-milled or wholly milled rice from Indonesia

Exports in kind, K t

The market exhibited volatility during the observed period. Export volumes reached their lowest point in 2019 at 0.3 K t and peaked in 2021 at 3 K t, representing a 12.2-fold increase. In 2021, deliveries of semi-milled or wholly milled rice from Indonesia surged by 896.1% compared to the previous year. The largest decline occurred in 2019, dropping by 91.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Indonesia in kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, the Philippines, Israel, and Turkey formed the core of Indonesia's exports in kind, accounting for 43.2%, 28.6%, and 14.3% of exports, respectively. Together, these three countries represented 86.1% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Indonesia in kind, 2018-2021

Exports in value, M $ US

Market performance showed noticeable fluctuations during this period. The lowest export value was recorded in 2019 at 0.5 M $ US, while the highest was in 2021 at 2.1 M $ US, reflecting a 4.3-fold gap. In 2021, Indonesia's exports of semi-milled or wholly milled rice increased dramatically by 264.4% compared to 2020. The largest decline occurred in 2019, falling by 65.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Indonesia in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Between 2018 and 2021, the Philippines, Israel, and the United States were the three principal markets for Indonesia's semi-milled or wholly milled rice exports in value terms, together accounting for 66.4% of total exports.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Indonesia in value, 2018-2021

Imports semi-milled or wholly milled rice to Indonesia

Imports in kind, K t

The market displayed volatility over the observed period. Import volumes fell to their lowest point in 2019 at 6 K t and peaked in 2018, showing a 299-fold amplitude. In 2021, Indonesia imported 75 K t of semi-milled or wholly milled rice, representing a 120.7% year-on-year rise. The largest decline was recorded in 2019 at 99.7%, while the largest increase occurred in 2020, surging by 447.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Indonesia in kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, Vietnam, Thailand, and India stood out as the main sources for Indonesia's imports in kind, contributing 43.6%, 36.0%, and 10.2% of imports, respectively. Together, these three countries represented 89.8% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Indonesia in kind, 2018-2021

Imports in value, M $ US

The market showed signs of volatility during this period. Import values dropped to their lowest point in 2019 at 4.2 M $ US and peaked in 2018, with a top-to-bottom ratio of 209 times. In 2021, Indonesia imported 41.6 M $ US worth of semi-milled or wholly milled rice, marking a sharp improvement of 114.9% compared to 2020. The largest decline was in 2019 at 99.5%, while the largest increase was in 2020, rising by 366.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Indonesia in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Throughout 2018-2021, Vietnam, Thailand, and India remained key partners for Indonesia's imports in value terms, accounting for 43.5%, 36.2%, and 10.4% of imports, respectively. Together, these three countries represented 90.1% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Indonesia in value, 2018-2021